Activity Lately

[peterb]

I dont the we’ve even had income tax for a 100 years yet. Let alone the interest rate deduction from it.

[outtamojo]

sdr, I keep hearing about “shadow inventory” and “wave of foreclosures” based on NODs but is there a way to measure the number of “shadow buyers” too? I mean you guys have been reporting multiple offers and bidding wars, so what happens to the losing bidders? Do they just give up on buying a house and disappear?

[outtamojo]

sdr, I keep hearing about “shadow inventory” and “wave of foreclosures” based on NODs but is there a way to measure the number of “shadow buyers” too? I mean you guys have been reporting multiple offers and bidding wars, so what happens to the losing bidders? Do they just give up on buying a house and disappear?

[outtamojo]

sdr, I keep hearing about “shadow inventory” and “wave of foreclosures” based on NODs but is there a way to measure the number of “shadow buyers” too? I mean you guys have been reporting multiple offers and bidding wars, so what happens to the losing bidders? Do they just give up on buying a house and disappear?

[outtamojo]

sdr, I keep hearing about “shadow inventory” and “wave of foreclosures” based on NODs but is there a way to measure the number of “shadow buyers” too? I mean you guys have been reporting multiple offers and bidding wars, so what happens to the losing bidders? Do they just give up on buying a house and disappear?

[outtamojo]

sdr, I keep hearing about “shadow inventory” and “wave of foreclosures” based on NODs but is there a way to measure the number of “shadow buyers” too? I mean you guys have been reporting multiple offers and bidding wars, so what happens to the losing bidders? Do they just give up on buying a house and disappear?

[NotCranky]

[quote=CA renter][quote=peterb]Thanks, Russ. Sounds like a logical explination of events. Cash buyers. Nice. Skin in the game.

But no move-up buyers. Sounds like sector compression is coming on strong. Wonder what this would look like if all the NOD’s (Shadow) were let loose on the market?[/quote]

I’m thinking a lot of this “cash” is from hard money loans and large investment pools.

Not organic demand. This is pent up supply, too.
[/quote]

Yep Peter, I predicted that “compression” on the spring prediction thread, remember? ;).

People on the 500K-800k and above buying threshold should hold out. Not saying others should not, but with weak sales in this price range I sure would.(I would also watch the loan mod activity and such). The hype was created where it didn’t belong by the fact that people tend to flock to the same deals,I made that warning many times here.It is also easy to blur activity from lower price ranges.

As far as the demand/supply. This is what makes talking about RE crazy making. No one really knows what projections to make. It looks like lots of people think that low end is in the “over correction” territory already and that is why you see so much activity in a fundamentally bad economy.

PITI debt ratios are still very liberal for those buying using loans too. My guess is that the powers that be are gambling that inflation and recovery will catch up. That or else they are just temporarily trying to put some of these homes in government insured,non- foreclosure status to white-wash the bank’s books, buy time and make fees.FHA is pretty hot now. Maybe we will have a wave of HUD foreclosures in a few years. That would be O.K.
I like the way HUD sells houses after they make a mess.

[NotCranky]

[quote=CA renter][quote=peterb]Thanks, Russ. Sounds like a logical explination of events. Cash buyers. Nice. Skin in the game.

But no move-up buyers. Sounds like sector compression is coming on strong. Wonder what this would look like if all the NOD’s (Shadow) were let loose on the market?[/quote]

I’m thinking a lot of this “cash” is from hard money loans and large investment pools.

Not organic demand. This is pent up supply, too.
[/quote]

Yep Peter, I predicted that “compression” on the spring prediction thread, remember? ;).

People on the 500K-800k and above buying threshold should hold out. Not saying others should not, but with weak sales in this price range I sure would.(I would also watch the loan mod activity and such). The hype was created where it didn’t belong by the fact that people tend to flock to the same deals,I made that warning many times here.It is also easy to blur activity from lower price ranges.

As far as the demand/supply. This is what makes talking about RE crazy making. No one really knows what projections to make. It looks like lots of people think that low end is in the “over correction” territory already and that is why you see so much activity in a fundamentally bad economy.

PITI debt ratios are still very liberal for those buying using loans too. My guess is that the powers that be are gambling that inflation and recovery will catch up. That or else they are just temporarily trying to put some of these homes in government insured,non- foreclosure status to white-wash the bank’s books, buy time and make fees.FHA is pretty hot now. Maybe we will have a wave of HUD foreclosures in a few years. That would be O.K.
I like the way HUD sells houses after they make a mess.

[NotCranky]

[quote=CA renter][quote=peterb]Thanks, Russ. Sounds like a logical explination of events. Cash buyers. Nice. Skin in the game.

But no move-up buyers. Sounds like sector compression is coming on strong. Wonder what this would look like if all the NOD’s (Shadow) were let loose on the market?[/quote]

I’m thinking a lot of this “cash” is from hard money loans and large investment pools.

Not organic demand. This is pent up supply, too.
[/quote]

Yep Peter, I predicted that “compression” on the spring prediction thread, remember? ;).

People on the 500K-800k and above buying threshold should hold out. Not saying others should not, but with weak sales in this price range I sure would.(I would also watch the loan mod activity and such). The hype was created where it didn’t belong by the fact that people tend to flock to the same deals,I made that warning many times here.It is also easy to blur activity from lower price ranges.

As far as the demand/supply. This is what makes talking about RE crazy making. No one really knows what projections to make. It looks like lots of people think that low end is in the “over correction” territory already and that is why you see so much activity in a fundamentally bad economy.

PITI debt ratios are still very liberal for those buying using loans too. My guess is that the powers that be are gambling that inflation and recovery will catch up. That or else they are just temporarily trying to put some of these homes in government insured,non- foreclosure status to white-wash the bank’s books, buy time and make fees.FHA is pretty hot now. Maybe we will have a wave of HUD foreclosures in a few years. That would be O.K.
I like the way HUD sells houses after they make a mess.

[NotCranky]

[quote=CA renter][quote=peterb]Thanks, Russ. Sounds like a logical explination of events. Cash buyers. Nice. Skin in the game.

But no move-up buyers. Sounds like sector compression is coming on strong. Wonder what this would look like if all the NOD’s (Shadow) were let loose on the market?[/quote]

I’m thinking a lot of this “cash” is from hard money loans and large investment pools.

Not organic demand. This is pent up supply, too.
[/quote]

Yep Peter, I predicted that “compression” on the spring prediction thread, remember? ;).

People on the 500K-800k and above buying threshold should hold out. Not saying others should not, but with weak sales in this price range I sure would.(I would also watch the loan mod activity and such). The hype was created where it didn’t belong by the fact that people tend to flock to the same deals,I made that warning many times here.It is also easy to blur activity from lower price ranges.

As far as the demand/supply. This is what makes talking about RE crazy making. No one really knows what projections to make. It looks like lots of people think that low end is in the “over correction” territory already and that is why you see so much activity in a fundamentally bad economy.

PITI debt ratios are still very liberal for those buying using loans too. My guess is that the powers that be are gambling that inflation and recovery will catch up. That or else they are just temporarily trying to put some of these homes in government insured,non- foreclosure status to white-wash the bank’s books, buy time and make fees.FHA is pretty hot now. Maybe we will have a wave of HUD foreclosures in a few years. That would be O.K.
I like the way HUD sells houses after they make a mess.

[NotCranky]

[quote=CA renter][quote=peterb]Thanks, Russ. Sounds like a logical explination of events. Cash buyers. Nice. Skin in the game.

But no move-up buyers. Sounds like sector compression is coming on strong. Wonder what this would look like if all the NOD’s (Shadow) were let loose on the market?[/quote]

I’m thinking a lot of this “cash” is from hard money loans and large investment pools.

Not organic demand. This is pent up supply, too.
[/quote]

Yep Peter, I predicted that “compression” on the spring prediction thread, remember? ;).

People on the 500K-800k and above buying threshold should hold out. Not saying others should not, but with weak sales in this price range I sure would.(I would also watch the loan mod activity and such). The hype was created where it didn’t belong by the fact that people tend to flock to the same deals,I made that warning many times here.It is also easy to blur activity from lower price ranges.

As far as the demand/supply. This is what makes talking about RE crazy making. No one really knows what projections to make. It looks like lots of people think that low end is in the “over correction” territory already and that is why you see so much activity in a fundamentally bad economy.

PITI debt ratios are still very liberal for those buying using loans too. My guess is that the powers that be are gambling that inflation and recovery will catch up. That or else they are just temporarily trying to put some of these homes in government insured,non- foreclosure status to white-wash the bank’s books, buy time and make fees.FHA is pretty hot now. Maybe we will have a wave of HUD foreclosures in a few years. That would be O.K.
I like the way HUD sells houses after they make a mess.

[sdrealtor]

outtamojo
its impossible to know how many are out there. I always assume that any buyer submitting an offer on one of my listings has a handful of offers out there. The only thing I do know is that with prices lower than they have been in years and going down further the number of buyers will increase as more can afford lower prices and unfilled demand piles up on itself. That was one of my hypotheses from day one on this blog (i.e. when prices bottom there will be intense competition for good and great properties). I must admit that the demand I am seeing already outstrips even my wildest expectations in the sub 500 market. If nice 4BR homes like those outlined in my bet with CA renter ever approached the 500’s there would be riots to buy homes.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

outtamojo
its impossible to know how many are out there. I always assume that any buyer submitting an offer on one of my listings has a handful of offers out there. The only thing I do know is that with prices lower than they have been in years and going down further the number of buyers will increase as more can afford lower prices and unfilled demand piles up on itself. That was one of my hypotheses from day one on this blog (i.e. when prices bottom there will be intense competition for good and great properties). I must admit that the demand I am seeing already outstrips even my wildest expectations in the sub 500 market. If nice 4BR homes like those outlined in my bet with CA renter ever approached the 500’s there would be riots to buy homes.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

outtamojo
its impossible to know how many are out there. I always assume that any buyer submitting an offer on one of my listings has a handful of offers out there. The only thing I do know is that with prices lower than they have been in years and going down further the number of buyers will increase as more can afford lower prices and unfilled demand piles up on itself. That was one of my hypotheses from day one on this blog (i.e. when prices bottom there will be intense competition for good and great properties). I must admit that the demand I am seeing already outstrips even my wildest expectations in the sub 500 market. If nice 4BR homes like those outlined in my bet with CA renter ever approached the 500’s there would be riots to buy homes.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

outtamojo
its impossible to know how many are out there. I always assume that any buyer submitting an offer on one of my listings has a handful of offers out there. The only thing I do know is that with prices lower than they have been in years and going down further the number of buyers will increase as more can afford lower prices and unfilled demand piles up on itself. That was one of my hypotheses from day one on this blog (i.e. when prices bottom there will be intense competition for good and great properties). I must admit that the demand I am seeing already outstrips even my wildest expectations in the sub 500 market. If nice 4BR homes like those outlined in my bet with CA renter ever approached the 500’s there would be riots to buy homes.

sdr

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