4s ranch builder price advice

[sd_bear]

Even if (and a very not plausible if) prices don’t even drop very much in that area from here on out, there certainly isn’t any pressure for increased prices anytime in the near future, so you really have no reason not to wait.

Worst case: Prices remain flat for a few years and you have more money saved and can buy at the same price without having wasted any money on maintenance, etc.

Best (likely) case: Prices drop during the next few years, you have more money saved, and you can buy that house at quite a discount or a bigger house for the same amount of money.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[patientlywaiting]

2000 is pre THIS bubble. But prior to that there was the previous bubble that inflated from 1996-2000 thanks to the dot-com bubble. The swelling portfolio cause people to go house hunting.

I expect THIS bubble to be taken back, still leaving us with some pretty inflated prices.

La Alberca has more land. Maybeck is almost a row-house (but I like the alley design).

I expect prices on those Maybeck 3000sf + houses to decline to the mid $450k within the next couple of years. Most Maybeck houses are under 3000sf. Only the ones with the guest suite are above 3000sf.

I’m not crazy about 4S but I think that it’s nicer south of Camino Del Norte.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[an]

For all who thinks we’ll go back to 2000 price, I sure hope you’re right but please take a look at Rich’s extensive amount plots here. They all show we didn’t hit bubblelicious territory until 2003. If we return back to 2000 prices, we’d be well under the trend line. It’s definitely possible if we undershoot by a big amount. But realistically, I highly doubt it’ll happen.

If we go back to 2000 price, houses in Mira Mesa would be around $200k. At today’s rate, your mortgage for a decent 4 bed/2 bath house would be around $1000/month while rent of a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa would be $1300/month. Also, a similar house in Mira Mesa in 1996-7 would fetch about $1200/month in rent w/ a 10% down (I know people who bought such house in 1996). So make your own judgment but please be realistic. If you do think it’ll go back to 2000 price, please provide data to support your point. I’ve just provided mine.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Eugene]

Here

The bubble started when the light-blue line separated from the brown line.

[Author]

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