4.25 Yrs. SoCal RE Inventory – Mr. Mortgage’s New Video on SoCal

[jpinpb]

He invited people to tell him different. His numbers at present seem accurate, sales vs inventory. If it continues as is, then it’s right, no?

[ltokuda]

I thought it was a bad sign that Mr. Mortgage was referencing the median price instead of the Case-Shiller HPI. He didn’t seem to understand that the median price continued to rise into 2007 because of a change in the mix of sales. He also didn’t seem to understand that the rapid fall in the median price since its 2007 peak was exaggerated due to a change in the mix of sales. It suggests to me that this person might not be too thorough with his research. I’d have a hard time trusting his conclusions.

[ltokuda]

I thought it was a bad sign that Mr. Mortgage was referencing the median price instead of the Case-Shiller HPI. He didn’t seem to understand that the median price continued to rise into 2007 because of a change in the mix of sales. He also didn’t seem to understand that the rapid fall in the median price since its 2007 peak was exaggerated due to a change in the mix of sales. It suggests to me that this person might not be too thorough with his research. I’d have a hard time trusting his conclusions.

[ltokuda]

I thought it was a bad sign that Mr. Mortgage was referencing the median price instead of the Case-Shiller HPI. He didn’t seem to understand that the median price continued to rise into 2007 because of a change in the mix of sales. He also didn’t seem to understand that the rapid fall in the median price since its 2007 peak was exaggerated due to a change in the mix of sales. It suggests to me that this person might not be too thorough with his research. I’d have a hard time trusting his conclusions.

[ltokuda]

I thought it was a bad sign that Mr. Mortgage was referencing the median price instead of the Case-Shiller HPI. He didn’t seem to understand that the median price continued to rise into 2007 because of a change in the mix of sales. He also didn’t seem to understand that the rapid fall in the median price since its 2007 peak was exaggerated due to a change in the mix of sales. It suggests to me that this person might not be too thorough with his research. I’d have a hard time trusting his conclusions.

[ltokuda]

I thought it was a bad sign that Mr. Mortgage was referencing the median price instead of the Case-Shiller HPI. He didn’t seem to understand that the median price continued to rise into 2007 because of a change in the mix of sales. He also didn’t seem to understand that the rapid fall in the median price since its 2007 peak was exaggerated due to a change in the mix of sales. It suggests to me that this person might not be too thorough with his research. I’d have a hard time trusting his conclusions.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[capeman]

Hmmm, so getting publicity to potentially get on TV as an analyst and generating web traffic aren't motivation ?

This guy's been on CNN already and how long would one last as an analyst posting bad data.  It's tough to get started being dishonest unless you're already in a position to be (a la CNBC analysts?).  When trying to build a reputation from scratch you have to be on it with your data and have predictions run true or else nobody will be listening to you for long.  

My only thought of his motivation would be that he's a big shorter of financials but who isn't when looking at all of the crap paper they are hiding.

[capeman]

Hmmm, so getting publicity to potentially get on TV as an analyst and generating web traffic aren't motivation ?

This guy's been on CNN already and how long would one last as an analyst posting bad data.  It's tough to get started being dishonest unless you're already in a position to be (a la CNBC analysts?).  When trying to build a reputation from scratch you have to be on it with your data and have predictions run true or else nobody will be listening to you for long.  

My only thought of his motivation would be that he's a big shorter of financials but who isn't when looking at all of the crap paper they are hiding.

[capeman]

Hmmm, so getting publicity to potentially get on TV as an analyst and generating web traffic aren't motivation ?

This guy's been on CNN already and how long would one last as an analyst posting bad data.  It's tough to get started being dishonest unless you're already in a position to be (a la CNBC analysts?).  When trying to build a reputation from scratch you have to be on it with your data and have predictions run true or else nobody will be listening to you for long.  

My only thought of his motivation would be that he's a big shorter of financials but who isn't when looking at all of the crap paper they are hiding.

[capeman]

Hmmm, so getting publicity to potentially get on TV as an analyst and generating web traffic aren't motivation ?

This guy's been on CNN already and how long would one last as an analyst posting bad data.  It's tough to get started being dishonest unless you're already in a position to be (a la CNBC analysts?).  When trying to build a reputation from scratch you have to be on it with your data and have predictions run true or else nobody will be listening to you for long.  

My only thought of his motivation would be that he's a big shorter of financials but who isn't when looking at all of the crap paper they are hiding.

[Author]

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