4.25 Yrs. SoCal RE Inventory – Mr. Mortgage’s New Video on SoCal

[jpinpb]

2012 is just about the time patrick.net predicted:
“Baby boomers retiring. There are 77 million Americans born between 1946-1964. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 62. The only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell. ”

Hey, FSD is right. We will never be through the inventory.

[ltokuda]

If you are going to include shadow inventory, why not go all the way and include all houses in existence ? The average person moves every 5-7 years, so they will eventually be on the market. Even those who think they can hold out forever cannot. They can't hold on forever because they will eventually die, unleashing these houses on the market. Add these to the potential foreclosures and you get about 34 years of inventory in San Diego county. So, the real potential inventory is much larger than these predictions.

FSD, I think you're underestimating the real potential inventory.  Remember that home builders are always building new homes.  The more demand there is, the more home builders will build.  So the real potential inventory is essentially infinite!

 

[ltokuda]

If you are going to include shadow inventory, why not go all the way and include all houses in existence ? The average person moves every 5-7 years, so they will eventually be on the market. Even those who think they can hold out forever cannot. They can't hold on forever because they will eventually die, unleashing these houses on the market. Add these to the potential foreclosures and you get about 34 years of inventory in San Diego county. So, the real potential inventory is much larger than these predictions.

FSD, I think you're underestimating the real potential inventory.  Remember that home builders are always building new homes.  The more demand there is, the more home builders will build.  So the real potential inventory is essentially infinite!

 

[ltokuda]

If you are going to include shadow inventory, why not go all the way and include all houses in existence ? The average person moves every 5-7 years, so they will eventually be on the market. Even those who think they can hold out forever cannot. They can't hold on forever because they will eventually die, unleashing these houses on the market. Add these to the potential foreclosures and you get about 34 years of inventory in San Diego county. So, the real potential inventory is much larger than these predictions.

FSD, I think you're underestimating the real potential inventory.  Remember that home builders are always building new homes.  The more demand there is, the more home builders will build.  So the real potential inventory is essentially infinite!

 

[ltokuda]

If you are going to include shadow inventory, why not go all the way and include all houses in existence ? The average person moves every 5-7 years, so they will eventually be on the market. Even those who think they can hold out forever cannot. They can't hold on forever because they will eventually die, unleashing these houses on the market. Add these to the potential foreclosures and you get about 34 years of inventory in San Diego county. So, the real potential inventory is much larger than these predictions.

FSD, I think you're underestimating the real potential inventory.  Remember that home builders are always building new homes.  The more demand there is, the more home builders will build.  So the real potential inventory is essentially infinite!

 

[ltokuda]

If you are going to include shadow inventory, why not go all the way and include all houses in existence ? The average person moves every 5-7 years, so they will eventually be on the market. Even those who think they can hold out forever cannot. They can't hold on forever because they will eventually die, unleashing these houses on the market. Add these to the potential foreclosures and you get about 34 years of inventory in San Diego county. So, the real potential inventory is much larger than these predictions.

FSD, I think you're underestimating the real potential inventory.  Remember that home builders are always building new homes.  The more demand there is, the more home builders will build.  So the real potential inventory is essentially infinite!

 

[ltokuda]

In all seriousness, the properties banks are holding are imminently going on the market. Most have already been on the market as short sales, go off, then back on very shortly after the bank takes possession. They need to be considered as inventory.

jpinpb, I think you're confusing "future inventory" with "inventory".  "Future inventory" is useful information when you're trying to forecast the market.  People should definitely be aware of it.  But you shouldn't use "future inventory" to calculate the "months of supply" because "months of supply" has a very specific definition.  Changing the definition of a well known term will confuse people rather than enlighten them.

[ltokuda]

In all seriousness, the properties banks are holding are imminently going on the market. Most have already been on the market as short sales, go off, then back on very shortly after the bank takes possession. They need to be considered as inventory.

jpinpb, I think you're confusing "future inventory" with "inventory".  "Future inventory" is useful information when you're trying to forecast the market.  People should definitely be aware of it.  But you shouldn't use "future inventory" to calculate the "months of supply" because "months of supply" has a very specific definition.  Changing the definition of a well known term will confuse people rather than enlighten them.

[ltokuda]

In all seriousness, the properties banks are holding are imminently going on the market. Most have already been on the market as short sales, go off, then back on very shortly after the bank takes possession. They need to be considered as inventory.

jpinpb, I think you're confusing "future inventory" with "inventory".  "Future inventory" is useful information when you're trying to forecast the market.  People should definitely be aware of it.  But you shouldn't use "future inventory" to calculate the "months of supply" because "months of supply" has a very specific definition.  Changing the definition of a well known term will confuse people rather than enlighten them.

[ltokuda]

In all seriousness, the properties banks are holding are imminently going on the market. Most have already been on the market as short sales, go off, then back on very shortly after the bank takes possession. They need to be considered as inventory.

jpinpb, I think you're confusing "future inventory" with "inventory".  "Future inventory" is useful information when you're trying to forecast the market.  People should definitely be aware of it.  But you shouldn't use "future inventory" to calculate the "months of supply" because "months of supply" has a very specific definition.  Changing the definition of a well known term will confuse people rather than enlighten them.

[ltokuda]

In all seriousness, the properties banks are holding are imminently going on the market. Most have already been on the market as short sales, go off, then back on very shortly after the bank takes possession. They need to be considered as inventory.

jpinpb, I think you're confusing "future inventory" with "inventory".  "Future inventory" is useful information when you're trying to forecast the market.  People should definitely be aware of it.  But you shouldn't use "future inventory" to calculate the "months of supply" because "months of supply" has a very specific definition.  Changing the definition of a well known term will confuse people rather than enlighten them.

[Anonymous]

Lets break this down into its components.

275k known listed inventory

31,250 most recent sales per month

23,324 most recent REO taken back to banks, which will be put back onto the market within 6 months. This number has been rising and will rise for at least 4 months out judging by the past 4 months NOD’s.

In order to get through the known 275k, what must happen.

[Anonymous]

Lets break this down into its components.

275k known listed inventory

31,250 most recent sales per month

23,324 most recent REO taken back to banks, which will be put back onto the market within 6 months. This number has been rising and will rise for at least 4 months out judging by the past 4 months NOD’s.

In order to get through the known 275k, what must happen.

[Anonymous]

Lets break this down into its components.

275k known listed inventory

31,250 most recent sales per month

23,324 most recent REO taken back to banks, which will be put back onto the market within 6 months. This number has been rising and will rise for at least 4 months out judging by the past 4 months NOD’s.

In order to get through the known 275k, what must happen.

[Anonymous]

Lets break this down into its components.

275k known listed inventory

31,250 most recent sales per month

23,324 most recent REO taken back to banks, which will be put back onto the market within 6 months. This number has been rising and will rise for at least 4 months out judging by the past 4 months NOD’s.

In order to get through the known 275k, what must happen.

[Author]

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