“43% Overpriced”

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Let’s consider median household income versus median price at the the last bottom. First of all, by 2000, we already had a significant bounce in prices from the bottom. I sold a house in Clairemont in early 2001 that I purchased in 1996. The price change in those 5 years was 65% (we made no improvements to the house).

At the last bottom, by 1995-1996t, after a 6-7 year decline, recession, structural changes in the local economy (loss of defense jobs) and unemployment in 8-9% range the San Diego the median household income in San Dieog for 1995 was:

per Census Bureau (1995): 37,000+-700
per Labor Dept. (1996) 34,000
per Franchise Tax board (1995): 40,706

Let’s use 37K as an average.

The median priced single family home in 1995 was ~ 171 K (per the CAR).

That’s 4.6x the median household income.

At the prevailing 8% interest rates at that time we’re talking about 45% of the median household income required to service PITI in the 1995-96 time frame.

Also, from personal experience a median priced home back then would buy you a 3 BR/ 1 Bath house in Clairemont with up to 1200 sq ft. You needed to make about 60K to qualify for a typical loan. Well above the median household income.

The concept of median house prices relating to qualification ratios at median household incomes is fantasy.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t see how the median income doesn’t go down in San Diego over the next few years. Even if the rest of the nation doesn’t go into recession (unlikely), the downturn in RE-related income will decrease significantly thus driving down the median income.

Overall incomes can go up during recessions, even bad ones.

Consider that during the last prolonged recession in San Diego the median household income increased from about 32K in 1990 to about 37K in 1995.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t see how the median income doesn’t go down in San Diego over the next few years. Even if the rest of the nation doesn’t go into recession (unlikely), the downturn in RE-related income will decrease significantly thus driving down the median income.

Overall incomes can go up during recessions, even bad ones.

Consider that during the last prolonged recession in San Diego the median household income increased from about 32K in 1990 to about 37K in 1995.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t see how the median income doesn’t go down in San Diego over the next few years. Even if the rest of the nation doesn’t go into recession (unlikely), the downturn in RE-related income will decrease significantly thus driving down the median income.

Overall incomes can go up during recessions, even bad ones.

Consider that during the last prolonged recession in San Diego the median household income increased from about 32K in 1990 to about 37K in 1995.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t see how the median income doesn’t go down in San Diego over the next few years. Even if the rest of the nation doesn’t go into recession (unlikely), the downturn in RE-related income will decrease significantly thus driving down the median income.

Overall incomes can go up during recessions, even bad ones.

Consider that during the last prolonged recession in San Diego the median household income increased from about 32K in 1990 to about 37K in 1995.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I don’t see how the median income doesn’t go down in San Diego over the next few years. Even if the rest of the nation doesn’t go into recession (unlikely), the downturn in RE-related income will decrease significantly thus driving down the median income.

Overall incomes can go up during recessions, even bad ones.

Consider that during the last prolonged recession in San Diego the median household income increased from about 32K in 1990 to about 37K in 1995.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

WhyBuy –
Thanks for bringing data.
68th income percentile is probably a reasonable target to use in affordability analysis.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

WhyBuy –
Thanks for bringing data.
68th income percentile is probably a reasonable target to use in affordability analysis.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

WhyBuy –
Thanks for bringing data.
68th income percentile is probably a reasonable target to use in affordability analysis.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

WhyBuy –
Thanks for bringing data.
68th income percentile is probably a reasonable target to use in affordability analysis.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

WhyBuy –
Thanks for bringing data.
68th income percentile is probably a reasonable target to use in affordability analysis.

[sdrealtor]

Ditto that FSD,
I dont necessarily believe the 75th percentile figure but knew we should be closer to that than to the 50th. I can live with the 68th percentile as being reasonable on an intuitive level.

One additional refinement we should concisder is that we should try to look at this ZIP code if possible. A shift in the mix of homes sold could wreek havoc on the analysis. Limiting the geography would seem to make more sense to me.

Thanks again WhyBuy

[sdrealtor]

Ditto that FSD,
I dont necessarily believe the 75th percentile figure but knew we should be closer to that than to the 50th. I can live with the 68th percentile as being reasonable on an intuitive level.

One additional refinement we should concisder is that we should try to look at this ZIP code if possible. A shift in the mix of homes sold could wreek havoc on the analysis. Limiting the geography would seem to make more sense to me.

Thanks again WhyBuy

[sdrealtor]

Ditto that FSD,
I dont necessarily believe the 75th percentile figure but knew we should be closer to that than to the 50th. I can live with the 68th percentile as being reasonable on an intuitive level.

One additional refinement we should concisder is that we should try to look at this ZIP code if possible. A shift in the mix of homes sold could wreek havoc on the analysis. Limiting the geography would seem to make more sense to me.

Thanks again WhyBuy

[sdrealtor]

Ditto that FSD,
I dont necessarily believe the 75th percentile figure but knew we should be closer to that than to the 50th. I can live with the 68th percentile as being reasonable on an intuitive level.

One additional refinement we should concisder is that we should try to look at this ZIP code if possible. A shift in the mix of homes sold could wreek havoc on the analysis. Limiting the geography would seem to make more sense to me.

Thanks again WhyBuy

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