$200K price drop on house…what’s going on in Temecula?

[paramount]

Morgan Hill @ $75/sf as some have suggested?

This is what I just pulled off the McMillin Website:

Blackstone
34359 Lamborn St Temecula 46 1B 3,284 3 beds/3.5 baths/1 stories 1/10/08 $511,955

Blackstone
44562 Villa Helena St Temecula 59 1AR 3,284 3 beds/3.5 baths/1 stories Now! $508,328

Montevina
33981 Parador St Temecula 123 3BR 3,239 5 beds/3 baths/2 stories Now! $499,000

Montevina
34029 Galleron St Temecula 72 2CR 3,106 4 beds/2.5 baths/2 stories 1/21/08 $479,38

Montevina
34079 Galleron St Temecula 68 3CR 3,239 5 beds/3 baths/2 stories 1/21/08 $487,512

The cheapest is still $150/sf.

I don’t see $75/sf happening at all(@ Morgan Hill).

[bearvine]

In 1992, I bought a home as the market was crashing for $350k from the developer, to keep the prices “up”, and this in an area much more desirable than Temecula.

After closing, I was given a cashiers check for $50k.

At the time I was young and simply thought that was how it worked.

Think that isnt happening or wont happen now?

McMillin is cutting deals right now, have been for awhile, and those prices above are for suckers, and they use it as a sales tool when they offer a serious buyer a deal.

In regards to Morgan Hill, Did you already forget the REO’s that were listed under $120?

I had 3 homes in Morgan Hill at different points, and even in the market peak, many were freaking out because they couldn’t afford their homes. And when we left the last one, there wasn’t a neighbor not feeling the pain and freaking out.

Go back to one of my old posts and watch the LA NBC channel 4 report and see how a Morgan Hill street was panicking months ago. Think they feel any better now?

How about on Tudal, houses dropping and then you got your neighbor with the astroturf? Not fake grass, astroturf front lawn.

Just because many there in Morgan Hill got screwed, and paid 600-700k, and some more, doesn’t mean they are not going to lose their shirts.

Don’t you think the former Greystones just down the street and older rundown Redhawk areas a block away won’t have an impact? You can buy a 4000 sq ft Greystone right now for 400k.

Also, you failed to mention that those same Blackstone homes, some sold for $700+. I have a friend who offered $600k for the plan 3 and was laughed out of the office not to long ago. Now they’ll take a shade over 500k for that. How about in another year?

And what happens when the McMillin sons decide to off the hundreds of graded lots on the cheap, the so called Phase 3 of Morgan Hill?

McMillin claims that they are private and not subject to the same pressures as the public builders. True, but their pockets aren’t as deep, and their holdings are SD based and tell me that market isn’t hurting.

If they decide to get out, and pull the trigger, they will dump all those empty lots to KB, Centex, or some other low end builder and just watch. Not to mention auctioning off what’s left.

The real auctions, not the BS ones that are on now, but when the market gets to the point where the blowout auctions occur as they did in the mid 90’s (in primo areas mind you) that’s when you know we are near the bottom.

Give it a few years. The Reaper is coming.

[bearvine]

In 1992, I bought a home as the market was crashing for $350k from the developer, to keep the prices “up”, and this in an area much more desirable than Temecula.

After closing, I was given a cashiers check for $50k.

At the time I was young and simply thought that was how it worked.

Think that isnt happening or wont happen now?

McMillin is cutting deals right now, have been for awhile, and those prices above are for suckers, and they use it as a sales tool when they offer a serious buyer a deal.

In regards to Morgan Hill, Did you already forget the REO’s that were listed under $120?

I had 3 homes in Morgan Hill at different points, and even in the market peak, many were freaking out because they couldn’t afford their homes. And when we left the last one, there wasn’t a neighbor not feeling the pain and freaking out.

Go back to one of my old posts and watch the LA NBC channel 4 report and see how a Morgan Hill street was panicking months ago. Think they feel any better now?

How about on Tudal, houses dropping and then you got your neighbor with the astroturf? Not fake grass, astroturf front lawn.

Just because many there in Morgan Hill got screwed, and paid 600-700k, and some more, doesn’t mean they are not going to lose their shirts.

Don’t you think the former Greystones just down the street and older rundown Redhawk areas a block away won’t have an impact? You can buy a 4000 sq ft Greystone right now for 400k.

Also, you failed to mention that those same Blackstone homes, some sold for $700+. I have a friend who offered $600k for the plan 3 and was laughed out of the office not to long ago. Now they’ll take a shade over 500k for that. How about in another year?

And what happens when the McMillin sons decide to off the hundreds of graded lots on the cheap, the so called Phase 3 of Morgan Hill?

McMillin claims that they are private and not subject to the same pressures as the public builders. True, but their pockets aren’t as deep, and their holdings are SD based and tell me that market isn’t hurting.

If they decide to get out, and pull the trigger, they will dump all those empty lots to KB, Centex, or some other low end builder and just watch. Not to mention auctioning off what’s left.

The real auctions, not the BS ones that are on now, but when the market gets to the point where the blowout auctions occur as they did in the mid 90’s (in primo areas mind you) that’s when you know we are near the bottom.

Give it a few years. The Reaper is coming.

[bearvine]

In 1992, I bought a home as the market was crashing for $350k from the developer, to keep the prices “up”, and this in an area much more desirable than Temecula.

After closing, I was given a cashiers check for $50k.

At the time I was young and simply thought that was how it worked.

Think that isnt happening or wont happen now?

McMillin is cutting deals right now, have been for awhile, and those prices above are for suckers, and they use it as a sales tool when they offer a serious buyer a deal.

In regards to Morgan Hill, Did you already forget the REO’s that were listed under $120?

I had 3 homes in Morgan Hill at different points, and even in the market peak, many were freaking out because they couldn’t afford their homes. And when we left the last one, there wasn’t a neighbor not feeling the pain and freaking out.

Go back to one of my old posts and watch the LA NBC channel 4 report and see how a Morgan Hill street was panicking months ago. Think they feel any better now?

How about on Tudal, houses dropping and then you got your neighbor with the astroturf? Not fake grass, astroturf front lawn.

Just because many there in Morgan Hill got screwed, and paid 600-700k, and some more, doesn’t mean they are not going to lose their shirts.

Don’t you think the former Greystones just down the street and older rundown Redhawk areas a block away won’t have an impact? You can buy a 4000 sq ft Greystone right now for 400k.

Also, you failed to mention that those same Blackstone homes, some sold for $700+. I have a friend who offered $600k for the plan 3 and was laughed out of the office not to long ago. Now they’ll take a shade over 500k for that. How about in another year?

And what happens when the McMillin sons decide to off the hundreds of graded lots on the cheap, the so called Phase 3 of Morgan Hill?

McMillin claims that they are private and not subject to the same pressures as the public builders. True, but their pockets aren’t as deep, and their holdings are SD based and tell me that market isn’t hurting.

If they decide to get out, and pull the trigger, they will dump all those empty lots to KB, Centex, or some other low end builder and just watch. Not to mention auctioning off what’s left.

The real auctions, not the BS ones that are on now, but when the market gets to the point where the blowout auctions occur as they did in the mid 90’s (in primo areas mind you) that’s when you know we are near the bottom.

Give it a few years. The Reaper is coming.

[bearvine]

In 1992, I bought a home as the market was crashing for $350k from the developer, to keep the prices “up”, and this in an area much more desirable than Temecula.

After closing, I was given a cashiers check for $50k.

At the time I was young and simply thought that was how it worked.

Think that isnt happening or wont happen now?

McMillin is cutting deals right now, have been for awhile, and those prices above are for suckers, and they use it as a sales tool when they offer a serious buyer a deal.

In regards to Morgan Hill, Did you already forget the REO’s that were listed under $120?

I had 3 homes in Morgan Hill at different points, and even in the market peak, many were freaking out because they couldn’t afford their homes. And when we left the last one, there wasn’t a neighbor not feeling the pain and freaking out.

Go back to one of my old posts and watch the LA NBC channel 4 report and see how a Morgan Hill street was panicking months ago. Think they feel any better now?

How about on Tudal, houses dropping and then you got your neighbor with the astroturf? Not fake grass, astroturf front lawn.

Just because many there in Morgan Hill got screwed, and paid 600-700k, and some more, doesn’t mean they are not going to lose their shirts.

Don’t you think the former Greystones just down the street and older rundown Redhawk areas a block away won’t have an impact? You can buy a 4000 sq ft Greystone right now for 400k.

Also, you failed to mention that those same Blackstone homes, some sold for $700+. I have a friend who offered $600k for the plan 3 and was laughed out of the office not to long ago. Now they’ll take a shade over 500k for that. How about in another year?

And what happens when the McMillin sons decide to off the hundreds of graded lots on the cheap, the so called Phase 3 of Morgan Hill?

McMillin claims that they are private and not subject to the same pressures as the public builders. True, but their pockets aren’t as deep, and their holdings are SD based and tell me that market isn’t hurting.

If they decide to get out, and pull the trigger, they will dump all those empty lots to KB, Centex, or some other low end builder and just watch. Not to mention auctioning off what’s left.

The real auctions, not the BS ones that are on now, but when the market gets to the point where the blowout auctions occur as they did in the mid 90’s (in primo areas mind you) that’s when you know we are near the bottom.

Give it a few years. The Reaper is coming.

[bearvine]

In 1992, I bought a home as the market was crashing for $350k from the developer, to keep the prices “up”, and this in an area much more desirable than Temecula.

After closing, I was given a cashiers check for $50k.

At the time I was young and simply thought that was how it worked.

Think that isnt happening or wont happen now?

McMillin is cutting deals right now, have been for awhile, and those prices above are for suckers, and they use it as a sales tool when they offer a serious buyer a deal.

In regards to Morgan Hill, Did you already forget the REO’s that were listed under $120?

I had 3 homes in Morgan Hill at different points, and even in the market peak, many were freaking out because they couldn’t afford their homes. And when we left the last one, there wasn’t a neighbor not feeling the pain and freaking out.

Go back to one of my old posts and watch the LA NBC channel 4 report and see how a Morgan Hill street was panicking months ago. Think they feel any better now?

How about on Tudal, houses dropping and then you got your neighbor with the astroturf? Not fake grass, astroturf front lawn.

Just because many there in Morgan Hill got screwed, and paid 600-700k, and some more, doesn’t mean they are not going to lose their shirts.

Don’t you think the former Greystones just down the street and older rundown Redhawk areas a block away won’t have an impact? You can buy a 4000 sq ft Greystone right now for 400k.

Also, you failed to mention that those same Blackstone homes, some sold for $700+. I have a friend who offered $600k for the plan 3 and was laughed out of the office not to long ago. Now they’ll take a shade over 500k for that. How about in another year?

And what happens when the McMillin sons decide to off the hundreds of graded lots on the cheap, the so called Phase 3 of Morgan Hill?

McMillin claims that they are private and not subject to the same pressures as the public builders. True, but their pockets aren’t as deep, and their holdings are SD based and tell me that market isn’t hurting.

If they decide to get out, and pull the trigger, they will dump all those empty lots to KB, Centex, or some other low end builder and just watch. Not to mention auctioning off what’s left.

The real auctions, not the BS ones that are on now, but when the market gets to the point where the blowout auctions occur as they did in the mid 90’s (in primo areas mind you) that’s when you know we are near the bottom.

Give it a few years. The Reaper is coming.

[temeculaguy]

I’m torn bear, I agree with your analysis (however my beloved redhawk is not run down, just mature, lol) but at the same time there is a part of my brain that can’t see hitory repeating itself in in South Teme to the degree that the nineties did. Morgan has wicked taxes, the worst anywhere up here so perhaps $75 a sq is possible on the larger homes but $250k will be the floor for the smaller ones. I attended the real auctions of the mid nineties, where vail ranch two story homes that were a year or two old went for 60-80k, I saw a lot $50-75 a square ft stuff. I think in the decade since, the area has more to offer and is a little more on the map, I see french valley and wildomar experiencing the most severe drop. Another thing that is a little different is the quality of the housing and the stuff inside and out. In 1995 when stalking the repos and auctions, I never saw granite or 100k backyards, the houses were just a lot more basic and the area lacked a lot of things that is has today. I agree that morgan is in trouble and there will be an ungodly amount of repos, I agree that the mid 400’s to 500’s that the repos on sattui and tudal are not the bottom but I also don’t think that $75 a square will hit anything under 3000 sq ft. I don’t think that the 2100 to 2700 sq ft tracts of morgan will be selling with a price that starts with a “1” I think 250-400 will be the range that the whole development settles in and it will be based on what it has always been based on, size, features, condition, location and rental rates. In the nineties when it went to hell I moved up and South, like a lot of others did, and they will do it again, there are many people who moved to the Menifee/Murrieta border in search of cheaper housing and it they could move to morgan for less, they will.

[temeculaguy]

I’m torn bear, I agree with your analysis (however my beloved redhawk is not run down, just mature, lol) but at the same time there is a part of my brain that can’t see hitory repeating itself in in South Teme to the degree that the nineties did. Morgan has wicked taxes, the worst anywhere up here so perhaps $75 a sq is possible on the larger homes but $250k will be the floor for the smaller ones. I attended the real auctions of the mid nineties, where vail ranch two story homes that were a year or two old went for 60-80k, I saw a lot $50-75 a square ft stuff. I think in the decade since, the area has more to offer and is a little more on the map, I see french valley and wildomar experiencing the most severe drop. Another thing that is a little different is the quality of the housing and the stuff inside and out. In 1995 when stalking the repos and auctions, I never saw granite or 100k backyards, the houses were just a lot more basic and the area lacked a lot of things that is has today. I agree that morgan is in trouble and there will be an ungodly amount of repos, I agree that the mid 400’s to 500’s that the repos on sattui and tudal are not the bottom but I also don’t think that $75 a square will hit anything under 3000 sq ft. I don’t think that the 2100 to 2700 sq ft tracts of morgan will be selling with a price that starts with a “1” I think 250-400 will be the range that the whole development settles in and it will be based on what it has always been based on, size, features, condition, location and rental rates. In the nineties when it went to hell I moved up and South, like a lot of others did, and they will do it again, there are many people who moved to the Menifee/Murrieta border in search of cheaper housing and it they could move to morgan for less, they will.

[temeculaguy]

I’m torn bear, I agree with your analysis (however my beloved redhawk is not run down, just mature, lol) but at the same time there is a part of my brain that can’t see hitory repeating itself in in South Teme to the degree that the nineties did. Morgan has wicked taxes, the worst anywhere up here so perhaps $75 a sq is possible on the larger homes but $250k will be the floor for the smaller ones. I attended the real auctions of the mid nineties, where vail ranch two story homes that were a year or two old went for 60-80k, I saw a lot $50-75 a square ft stuff. I think in the decade since, the area has more to offer and is a little more on the map, I see french valley and wildomar experiencing the most severe drop. Another thing that is a little different is the quality of the housing and the stuff inside and out. In 1995 when stalking the repos and auctions, I never saw granite or 100k backyards, the houses were just a lot more basic and the area lacked a lot of things that is has today. I agree that morgan is in trouble and there will be an ungodly amount of repos, I agree that the mid 400’s to 500’s that the repos on sattui and tudal are not the bottom but I also don’t think that $75 a square will hit anything under 3000 sq ft. I don’t think that the 2100 to 2700 sq ft tracts of morgan will be selling with a price that starts with a “1” I think 250-400 will be the range that the whole development settles in and it will be based on what it has always been based on, size, features, condition, location and rental rates. In the nineties when it went to hell I moved up and South, like a lot of others did, and they will do it again, there are many people who moved to the Menifee/Murrieta border in search of cheaper housing and it they could move to morgan for less, they will.

[temeculaguy]

I’m torn bear, I agree with your analysis (however my beloved redhawk is not run down, just mature, lol) but at the same time there is a part of my brain that can’t see hitory repeating itself in in South Teme to the degree that the nineties did. Morgan has wicked taxes, the worst anywhere up here so perhaps $75 a sq is possible on the larger homes but $250k will be the floor for the smaller ones. I attended the real auctions of the mid nineties, where vail ranch two story homes that were a year or two old went for 60-80k, I saw a lot $50-75 a square ft stuff. I think in the decade since, the area has more to offer and is a little more on the map, I see french valley and wildomar experiencing the most severe drop. Another thing that is a little different is the quality of the housing and the stuff inside and out. In 1995 when stalking the repos and auctions, I never saw granite or 100k backyards, the houses were just a lot more basic and the area lacked a lot of things that is has today. I agree that morgan is in trouble and there will be an ungodly amount of repos, I agree that the mid 400’s to 500’s that the repos on sattui and tudal are not the bottom but I also don’t think that $75 a square will hit anything under 3000 sq ft. I don’t think that the 2100 to 2700 sq ft tracts of morgan will be selling with a price that starts with a “1” I think 250-400 will be the range that the whole development settles in and it will be based on what it has always been based on, size, features, condition, location and rental rates. In the nineties when it went to hell I moved up and South, like a lot of others did, and they will do it again, there are many people who moved to the Menifee/Murrieta border in search of cheaper housing and it they could move to morgan for less, they will.

[temeculaguy]

I’m torn bear, I agree with your analysis (however my beloved redhawk is not run down, just mature, lol) but at the same time there is a part of my brain that can’t see hitory repeating itself in in South Teme to the degree that the nineties did. Morgan has wicked taxes, the worst anywhere up here so perhaps $75 a sq is possible on the larger homes but $250k will be the floor for the smaller ones. I attended the real auctions of the mid nineties, where vail ranch two story homes that were a year or two old went for 60-80k, I saw a lot $50-75 a square ft stuff. I think in the decade since, the area has more to offer and is a little more on the map, I see french valley and wildomar experiencing the most severe drop. Another thing that is a little different is the quality of the housing and the stuff inside and out. In 1995 when stalking the repos and auctions, I never saw granite or 100k backyards, the houses were just a lot more basic and the area lacked a lot of things that is has today. I agree that morgan is in trouble and there will be an ungodly amount of repos, I agree that the mid 400’s to 500’s that the repos on sattui and tudal are not the bottom but I also don’t think that $75 a square will hit anything under 3000 sq ft. I don’t think that the 2100 to 2700 sq ft tracts of morgan will be selling with a price that starts with a “1” I think 250-400 will be the range that the whole development settles in and it will be based on what it has always been based on, size, features, condition, location and rental rates. In the nineties when it went to hell I moved up and South, like a lot of others did, and they will do it again, there are many people who moved to the Menifee/Murrieta border in search of cheaper housing and it they could move to morgan for less, they will.

[paramount]

A few months back I went to one of the models in Morgan Hill and the sales rep. sternly stated that they will not lower the prices in order to protect current owners. No, I didn’t buy it at all.

On the other hand, the prices stated above are for the quick move-in homes which are supposedly on sale.

I would love to buy a house up there (like many others), but I bet if I offered 375k on the cheapest house on the list I to would get laughed out of the office.

[paramount]

A few months back I went to one of the models in Morgan Hill and the sales rep. sternly stated that they will not lower the prices in order to protect current owners. No, I didn’t buy it at all.

On the other hand, the prices stated above are for the quick move-in homes which are supposedly on sale.

I would love to buy a house up there (like many others), but I bet if I offered 375k on the cheapest house on the list I to would get laughed out of the office.

[paramount]

A few months back I went to one of the models in Morgan Hill and the sales rep. sternly stated that they will not lower the prices in order to protect current owners. No, I didn’t buy it at all.

On the other hand, the prices stated above are for the quick move-in homes which are supposedly on sale.

I would love to buy a house up there (like many others), but I bet if I offered 375k on the cheapest house on the list I to would get laughed out of the office.

[paramount]

A few months back I went to one of the models in Morgan Hill and the sales rep. sternly stated that they will not lower the prices in order to protect current owners. No, I didn’t buy it at all.

On the other hand, the prices stated above are for the quick move-in homes which are supposedly on sale.

I would love to buy a house up there (like many others), but I bet if I offered 375k on the cheapest house on the list I to would get laughed out of the office.

[Author]

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