You make a good point cali. Unfortunately I don’t believe there is reliable data to quantify the effects of higher rates on the San Diego submarket.
I think it is very hard to predict what the San Diego housing prices of today would move to if we endured an environment comparable to say the late 70s and early 80s.
I do believe it is safe to say that no way in hell would prices be able to survive that sort of rate movement. Rates went from 3.5 to 4.5 and everyone moans and groans. How about rates at 8 or 9%. No friggin way a 4S Ranch home priced at 700k today could keep that value.
The question is, what will be the decline? Is it linear? Doubtful. Hard to say what it would look like. I don’t think looking back at say rates in the mid or late 90s is a good barometer either because that was a much more robust economy.
