2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.
Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.
We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.
These declines will never stop.
By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.
Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.
Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.
