The $100-oil barrel

[Coronita]

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/03/one-dude-caused-oil-to-hit-100-barrel/

 

It was reported here yesterday that the price of a barrel of oil hit $100 for the first time ever. What actually happened was that one guy bought oil slightly above market price just so he could say "I was the first schmuck to buy oil at $100 a barrel!" The trader hasn't been identified, but after buying the minimum lot of 1,000 barrels from a colleague, he then sold them right back at a loss. It isn't clear what oil was trading at when he bought the barrels, but for his $100 per barrel order, he got $99.40 per barrel return. That means his moment of worldwide fame cost him $600, along with a few hours of jittery markets. Even if it was artificially induced, he was the first, and it probably won't be long before people are spending that much for real: Goldman Sachs predicts oil to be at $105 by year's end.

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Author]

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