The $100-oil barrel

[Coronita]

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/01/03/one-dude-caused-oil-to-hit-100-barrel/

 

It was reported here yesterday that the price of a barrel of oil hit $100 for the first time ever. What actually happened was that one guy bought oil slightly above market price just so he could say "I was the first schmuck to buy oil at $100 a barrel!" The trader hasn't been identified, but after buying the minimum lot of 1,000 barrels from a colleague, he then sold them right back at a loss. It isn't clear what oil was trading at when he bought the barrels, but for his $100 per barrel order, he got $99.40 per barrel return. That means his moment of worldwide fame cost him $600, along with a few hours of jittery markets. Even if it was artificially induced, he was the first, and it probably won't be long before people are spending that much for real: Goldman Sachs predicts oil to be at $105 by year's end.

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[Arraya]

It will be $105 only with serious demand destruction by a huge global slowdown.

It should be very volitile prices this year fluxuating from 90-160.

The only analyists that predicted this years prices with any accuracy were the ones that follow peak oil. All the rest have been calling for lower prices since it past $50.

Obviously they don’t follow the most important factor production #s. For some reason people do not like the idea that things run out in a finite world so they bury their head in the sand and come up with some other narrative that makes it seem like it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

I just can’t figure out if it is purposeful deception or ignorance….

[temeculaguy]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

[Arraya]

To bad they can’t deliver. They are having transmission problems, on thier 3rd ceo and seeking more investment money last I heard…

Plus what percentage of the population can afford that. Not many.

We need major mass transit and stop banking on keeping the car culture going when we do not have any viable replacement for transportation fuel.

No politcian in a million years would ever say that. We will invade every country with oil and kill millions before we give up our cars.

[temeculaguy]

So the transmission didn’t work and they are putting in temporary ones that only will take it 0-60 in 5.7 seconds. Even if it goes slower than a Prius, I want one it’s sesssy!!!! IT doesn’t even have to run, I’ll push it. Look, we are going to kill people anyway, we have done so every 20-30 years since we started this place, most countries do it more often than that. Usually it is for land, religion or ideology. At least if it is to keep me from having to ride the bus, I’m good with that.

Before yo get bent, I’m playing. Shortages and pending doom always bring out the best in people, the higher the price of oil gets the more research will be done in getting around it. We could have figured out another way thirty years ago but we didn’t need to, fuel practically came out of the ground. That party is over so it’s a good thing that we will be forced to figure something else out. It’s popular, it will get you chicks and make you more famous than a rock star, just figure out a way to power a car with milk duds and you will be rich and famous. Sorry it had to come to this but this is how it works. How would Louis Pastuer or Jonas Salk be treated had their discovery been in 2008, they would have an MTV cribs episode within a week and we would see them co-hosting the New Years Eve show with Ryan Seacrest.

[Arraya]

Yes, I’m sure lack of preparation and failure to acknowledge a problem will produce the best results. That’s how we all live our personal lives right.

It’s better to dig a well when you are not thirsty…

We are all on the titanic and the captian is telling us to go back to our cabins everytings fine while he and all his freinds get into their lifeboats.

[Arraya]

Yes, I’m sure lack of preparation and failure to acknowledge a problem will produce the best results. That’s how we all live our personal lives right.

It’s better to dig a well when you are not thirsty…

We are all on the titanic and the captian is telling us to go back to our cabins everytings fine while he and all his freinds get into their lifeboats.

[Arraya]

Yes, I’m sure lack of preparation and failure to acknowledge a problem will produce the best results. That’s how we all live our personal lives right.

It’s better to dig a well when you are not thirsty…

We are all on the titanic and the captian is telling us to go back to our cabins everytings fine while he and all his freinds get into their lifeboats.

[Arraya]

Yes, I’m sure lack of preparation and failure to acknowledge a problem will produce the best results. That’s how we all live our personal lives right.

It’s better to dig a well when you are not thirsty…

We are all on the titanic and the captian is telling us to go back to our cabins everytings fine while he and all his freinds get into their lifeboats.

[Arraya]

Yes, I’m sure lack of preparation and failure to acknowledge a problem will produce the best results. That’s how we all live our personal lives right.

It’s better to dig a well when you are not thirsty…

We are all on the titanic and the captian is telling us to go back to our cabins everytings fine while he and all his freinds get into their lifeboats.

[temeculaguy]

So the transmission didn’t work and they are putting in temporary ones that only will take it 0-60 in 5.7 seconds. Even if it goes slower than a Prius, I want one it’s sesssy!!!! IT doesn’t even have to run, I’ll push it. Look, we are going to kill people anyway, we have done so every 20-30 years since we started this place, most countries do it more often than that. Usually it is for land, religion or ideology. At least if it is to keep me from having to ride the bus, I’m good with that.

Before yo get bent, I’m playing. Shortages and pending doom always bring out the best in people, the higher the price of oil gets the more research will be done in getting around it. We could have figured out another way thirty years ago but we didn’t need to, fuel practically came out of the ground. That party is over so it’s a good thing that we will be forced to figure something else out. It’s popular, it will get you chicks and make you more famous than a rock star, just figure out a way to power a car with milk duds and you will be rich and famous. Sorry it had to come to this but this is how it works. How would Louis Pastuer or Jonas Salk be treated had their discovery been in 2008, they would have an MTV cribs episode within a week and we would see them co-hosting the New Years Eve show with Ryan Seacrest.

[temeculaguy]

So the transmission didn’t work and they are putting in temporary ones that only will take it 0-60 in 5.7 seconds. Even if it goes slower than a Prius, I want one it’s sesssy!!!! IT doesn’t even have to run, I’ll push it. Look, we are going to kill people anyway, we have done so every 20-30 years since we started this place, most countries do it more often than that. Usually it is for land, religion or ideology. At least if it is to keep me from having to ride the bus, I’m good with that.

Before yo get bent, I’m playing. Shortages and pending doom always bring out the best in people, the higher the price of oil gets the more research will be done in getting around it. We could have figured out another way thirty years ago but we didn’t need to, fuel practically came out of the ground. That party is over so it’s a good thing that we will be forced to figure something else out. It’s popular, it will get you chicks and make you more famous than a rock star, just figure out a way to power a car with milk duds and you will be rich and famous. Sorry it had to come to this but this is how it works. How would Louis Pastuer or Jonas Salk be treated had their discovery been in 2008, they would have an MTV cribs episode within a week and we would see them co-hosting the New Years Eve show with Ryan Seacrest.

[temeculaguy]

So the transmission didn’t work and they are putting in temporary ones that only will take it 0-60 in 5.7 seconds. Even if it goes slower than a Prius, I want one it’s sesssy!!!! IT doesn’t even have to run, I’ll push it. Look, we are going to kill people anyway, we have done so every 20-30 years since we started this place, most countries do it more often than that. Usually it is for land, religion or ideology. At least if it is to keep me from having to ride the bus, I’m good with that.

Before yo get bent, I’m playing. Shortages and pending doom always bring out the best in people, the higher the price of oil gets the more research will be done in getting around it. We could have figured out another way thirty years ago but we didn’t need to, fuel practically came out of the ground. That party is over so it’s a good thing that we will be forced to figure something else out. It’s popular, it will get you chicks and make you more famous than a rock star, just figure out a way to power a car with milk duds and you will be rich and famous. Sorry it had to come to this but this is how it works. How would Louis Pastuer or Jonas Salk be treated had their discovery been in 2008, they would have an MTV cribs episode within a week and we would see them co-hosting the New Years Eve show with Ryan Seacrest.

[temeculaguy]

So the transmission didn’t work and they are putting in temporary ones that only will take it 0-60 in 5.7 seconds. Even if it goes slower than a Prius, I want one it’s sesssy!!!! IT doesn’t even have to run, I’ll push it. Look, we are going to kill people anyway, we have done so every 20-30 years since we started this place, most countries do it more often than that. Usually it is for land, religion or ideology. At least if it is to keep me from having to ride the bus, I’m good with that.

Before yo get bent, I’m playing. Shortages and pending doom always bring out the best in people, the higher the price of oil gets the more research will be done in getting around it. We could have figured out another way thirty years ago but we didn’t need to, fuel practically came out of the ground. That party is over so it’s a good thing that we will be forced to figure something else out. It’s popular, it will get you chicks and make you more famous than a rock star, just figure out a way to power a car with milk duds and you will be rich and famous. Sorry it had to come to this but this is how it works. How would Louis Pastuer or Jonas Salk be treated had their discovery been in 2008, they would have an MTV cribs episode within a week and we would see them co-hosting the New Years Eve show with Ryan Seacrest.

[Arraya]

To bad they can’t deliver. They are having transmission problems, on thier 3rd ceo and seeking more investment money last I heard…

Plus what percentage of the population can afford that. Not many.

We need major mass transit and stop banking on keeping the car culture going when we do not have any viable replacement for transportation fuel.

No politcian in a million years would ever say that. We will invade every country with oil and kill millions before we give up our cars.

[Arraya]

To bad they can’t deliver. They are having transmission problems, on thier 3rd ceo and seeking more investment money last I heard…

Plus what percentage of the population can afford that. Not many.

We need major mass transit and stop banking on keeping the car culture going when we do not have any viable replacement for transportation fuel.

No politcian in a million years would ever say that. We will invade every country with oil and kill millions before we give up our cars.

[Arraya]

To bad they can’t deliver. They are having transmission problems, on thier 3rd ceo and seeking more investment money last I heard…

Plus what percentage of the population can afford that. Not many.

We need major mass transit and stop banking on keeping the car culture going when we do not have any viable replacement for transportation fuel.

No politcian in a million years would ever say that. We will invade every country with oil and kill millions before we give up our cars.

[Arraya]

To bad they can’t deliver. They are having transmission problems, on thier 3rd ceo and seeking more investment money last I heard…

Plus what percentage of the population can afford that. Not many.

We need major mass transit and stop banking on keeping the car culture going when we do not have any viable replacement for transportation fuel.

No politcian in a million years would ever say that. We will invade every country with oil and kill millions before we give up our cars.

[Coronita]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

 

Except they can't figure out how to build a transmission that can handle the initial torque, which explains the production delay.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

 

Except they can't figure out how to build a transmission that can handle the initial torque, which explains the production delay.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

 

Except they can't figure out how to build a transmission that can handle the initial torque, which explains the production delay.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

 

Except they can't figure out how to build a transmission that can handle the initial torque, which explains the production delay.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

 

Except they can't figure out how to build a transmission that can handle the initial torque, which explains the production delay.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[temeculaguy]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

[temeculaguy]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

[temeculaguy]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

[temeculaguy]

The more it costs the better chance one of these will pencil out. http://www.teslamotors.com/

[Arraya]

It will be $105 only with serious demand destruction by a huge global slowdown.

It should be very volitile prices this year fluxuating from 90-160.

The only analyists that predicted this years prices with any accuracy were the ones that follow peak oil. All the rest have been calling for lower prices since it past $50.

Obviously they don’t follow the most important factor production #s. For some reason people do not like the idea that things run out in a finite world so they bury their head in the sand and come up with some other narrative that makes it seem like it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

I just can’t figure out if it is purposeful deception or ignorance….

[Arraya]

It will be $105 only with serious demand destruction by a huge global slowdown.

It should be very volitile prices this year fluxuating from 90-160.

The only analyists that predicted this years prices with any accuracy were the ones that follow peak oil. All the rest have been calling for lower prices since it past $50.

Obviously they don’t follow the most important factor production #s. For some reason people do not like the idea that things run out in a finite world so they bury their head in the sand and come up with some other narrative that makes it seem like it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

I just can’t figure out if it is purposeful deception or ignorance….

[Arraya]

It will be $105 only with serious demand destruction by a huge global slowdown.

It should be very volitile prices this year fluxuating from 90-160.

The only analyists that predicted this years prices with any accuracy were the ones that follow peak oil. All the rest have been calling for lower prices since it past $50.

Obviously they don’t follow the most important factor production #s. For some reason people do not like the idea that things run out in a finite world so they bury their head in the sand and come up with some other narrative that makes it seem like it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

I just can’t figure out if it is purposeful deception or ignorance….

[Arraya]

It will be $105 only with serious demand destruction by a huge global slowdown.

It should be very volitile prices this year fluxuating from 90-160.

The only analyists that predicted this years prices with any accuracy were the ones that follow peak oil. All the rest have been calling for lower prices since it past $50.

Obviously they don’t follow the most important factor production #s. For some reason people do not like the idea that things run out in a finite world so they bury their head in the sand and come up with some other narrative that makes it seem like it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

I just can’t figure out if it is purposeful deception or ignorance….

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[TheBreeze]

If oil is at $105 at the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised. $120 or greater is my expected target by year end. Stagflation looks like where we’re headed as the Fed and the federal government aren’t going to let the housing bubble correct on its own.

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

If true… Pretty funny imho.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

 

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Looks like the trader was identified:

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/01/03/9882/100-oil-and-that-trade/

 

 

Perhaps Richard Arens just got bored of waiting for oil to pass the magic but meaningless three-figure mark. Or perhaps he wanted a natty print-out for the office loo, a lasting memento of his moment in market history.

Regardless of motivation, it was a single small deal by this independent trader that on Wednesday pushed oil prices briefly to the unprecedented $100 a barrel level, reports Javier Blas in the FT.

Struck on the floor of Nymex at a hefty premium, about 50 cents, to prevailing prices,  that trader, named as Richard Arens who runs a brokerage called ABS, bought just 1,000 barrels of crude, the minimum allowed, from a colleague. The result was a divergence of the prices posted on Globex electronic screens at the exchange and through traders that work the floor – and widespread confusion, says the WSJ.

Before the $100-a-barrel trade, adds Blas, oil prices on Globex were at $99.53 a barrel. Immediately after the trade, prices went down to about $99.40, suggesting a trading loss of $600 for Mr Arens.

Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, commented: “A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it. Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.”  Local traders trade on their own money.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed in New York significantly higher at $99.64 a barrel, up $3.66 on the day. On Thursday morning in Europe it was up again slightly trading at $99.66 a barrel.

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[Arraya]

Yes they take years but it will not catch up with the declines. That is how it works…

Biggest year how? Not in discovery and not in production. We have not had a signicant discovery since the 60s. We are consuming 3-4 for every 1 we find. The big discoveries are not there any more. Mexico will cease exporting in 3-5 years, the UK just did 2 years ago. Iran peaked in like 03.

Every well peaks and declines, every geographic region peaks and declines and the world has.

I guess if it makes you feel better to think that but it is not very realistic..

The Basis of the Problem Is Psychological, Not Technological

As the oil crisis worsens there will be various forms of aberrant behavior: denial, anger, mental paralysis. There will be an increase in crime, there will be strange religious cults or extremist political movements. The reason for such behavior is that fundamentally the peak-oil problem is not about technology, and it is not about economics, and it is not about politics. It is partly about humanity’s attempt to defy geology.

It is very unfortunate because there are many things we could have done or still do. But not even acknowleding the problem makes things worse…

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[bubble_contagion]

Thanks God I work for the oil industry. Last year was our biggest year ever. The company I work for, and our competitors, are working at full capacity to provide more equipment to extract and pump oil. Don’t worry, we will eventually catch up with demand but these projects take years.

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[Arraya]

World Production

2004 82.9 mill bbl per day avg.
2005 84.15 million bbl per day avg.
2006 84.8 million bbl per day avg.
2007 84.62 million bbl per day avg.

Considering since 1980-2004 we have had a 2-4% increase per year to keep up with demand. This would indicate a peak in production. What do we think will happen with 2-4% declines coupled with increasing demand from the industrialized nations.

We lost 4% during the 1970s oil embargo and the price quadrupled.

These declines will never stop.

By 2015ish there will be no exportable oil left unless we take over another country. That would leave us a 20 million bbl per day shortfall by then. We could convert all the farmland to corn ethanol and it would only make up a tiny fraction except we would have no food.

Also keep in mind GDP and population have always tracked oil production since the late 1800s.

Why don’t the analyists ever mention production #s. It’s always something else causing price increases.

We are on the edge of an abyss…

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

For those you who are still not convinced of the severity of our oil depletion problem, I encourage you to watch the following video. Surely you will find the ‘body’ of evidence presented overwhelming:

YouTube clicky

[Arraya]

haha… I saw that the other day.

Actually here is the best documentary out there if anybody is really interested.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-703701197044020456&q=crude+awakening&total=183&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Covers: Importance, irreplaceability and likely outcomes from depletion economically and politically.

It has all very credible scientists and ex-industry insiders as well as Matt Simmions who happened to be co-chair of the cheney task force.

It’s a little dated as far as date of peaking. At this point, the more production data that comes in the more the case is reinforced that peak was last year.

[cooperthedog]

arraya – thanks for the post, very informative & depressing…

I was already a believer in peak oil, but the alternatives (or lack thereof) was an eye-opener, especially the nuclear power required & limited u235, and the hydrogen based economy timeframe and its current 6:1 oil/hydrogen converion ratio.

[cooperthedog]

arraya – thanks for the post, very informative & depressing…

I was already a believer in peak oil, but the alternatives (or lack thereof) was an eye-opener, especially the nuclear power required & limited u235, and the hydrogen based economy timeframe and its current 6:1 oil/hydrogen converion ratio.

[cooperthedog]

arraya – thanks for the post, very informative & depressing…

I was already a believer in peak oil, but the alternatives (or lack thereof) was an eye-opener, especially the nuclear power required & limited u235, and the hydrogen based economy timeframe and its current 6:1 oil/hydrogen converion ratio.

[cooperthedog]

arraya – thanks for the post, very informative & depressing…

I was already a believer in peak oil, but the alternatives (or lack thereof) was an eye-opener, especially the nuclear power required & limited u235, and the hydrogen based economy timeframe and its current 6:1 oil/hydrogen converion ratio.

[cooperthedog]

arraya – thanks for the post, very informative & depressing…

I was already a believer in peak oil, but the alternatives (or lack thereof) was an eye-opener, especially the nuclear power required & limited u235, and the hydrogen based economy timeframe and its current 6:1 oil/hydrogen converion ratio.

[Arraya]

haha… I saw that the other day.

Actually here is the best documentary out there if anybody is really interested.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-703701197044020456&q=crude+awakening&total=183&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Covers: Importance, irreplaceability and likely outcomes from depletion economically and politically.

It has all very credible scientists and ex-industry insiders as well as Matt Simmions who happened to be co-chair of the cheney task force.

It’s a little dated as far as date of peaking. At this point, the more production data that comes in the more the case is reinforced that peak was last year.

[Arraya]

haha… I saw that the other day.

Actually here is the best documentary out there if anybody is really interested.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-703701197044020456&q=crude+awakening&total=183&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Covers: Importance, irreplaceability and likely outcomes from depletion economically and politically.

It has all very credible scientists and ex-industry insiders as well as Matt Simmions who happened to be co-chair of the cheney task force.

It’s a little dated as far as date of peaking. At this point, the more production data that comes in the more the case is reinforced that peak was last year.

[Arraya]

haha… I saw that the other day.

Actually here is the best documentary out there if anybody is really interested.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-703701197044020456&q=crude+awakening&total=183&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Covers: Importance, irreplaceability and likely outcomes from depletion economically and politically.

It has all very credible scientists and ex-industry insiders as well as Matt Simmions who happened to be co-chair of the cheney task force.

It’s a little dated as far as date of peaking. At this point, the more production data that comes in the more the case is reinforced that peak was last year.

[Arraya]

haha… I saw that the other day.

Actually here is the best documentary out there if anybody is really interested.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-703701197044020456&q=crude+awakening&total=183&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

Covers: Importance, irreplaceability and likely outcomes from depletion economically and politically.

It has all very credible scientists and ex-industry insiders as well as Matt Simmions who happened to be co-chair of the cheney task force.

It’s a little dated as far as date of peaking. At this point, the more production data that comes in the more the case is reinforced that peak was last year.

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

For those you who are still not convinced of the severity of our oil depletion problem, I encourage you to watch the following video. Surely you will find the ‘body’ of evidence presented overwhelming:

YouTube clicky

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

For those you who are still not convinced of the severity of our oil depletion problem, I encourage you to watch the following video. Surely you will find the ‘body’ of evidence presented overwhelming:

YouTube clicky

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

For those you who are still not convinced of the severity of our oil depletion problem, I encourage you to watch the following video. Surely you will find the ‘body’ of evidence presented overwhelming:

YouTube clicky

[OwnerOfCalifornia]

For those you who are still not convinced of the severity of our oil depletion problem, I encourage you to watch the following video. Surely you will find the ‘body’ of evidence presented overwhelming:

YouTube clicky

[Author]

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