“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”
We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.
