City average: 162% (median house value $421k)
Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, Scripps Ranch: 167% ($849k)
Carlsbad, Encinitas: 181% ($719k)
Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, Carmel Mtn Ranch: 173% ($561k)
Bonita, Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 165% ($443k)
Clairemont, Linda Vista, Mira Mesa: 162% ($397k)
Vista, San Marcos, Escondido: 157% ($391k)
Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, San Ysidro: 170% ($360k)
54-94 corridor: 159% ($269k)
Justifiable price levels given current mortgage rates and 3% average inflation: 159% (conforming land), 142% (jumbo land)
All areas are close together and the pattern is even a little bit “upside-down”, high-end areas are relatively more overpriced than low-end areas. This is the opposite of what we had in ’05-’06.
Low end areas are quite reasonably priced at these rates. High end needs to come down another 15-20% to stabilize.
Also it’s interesting to note that “median values” are consistently lower than average April sales prices. Good properties are moving and bad properties are sitting on the market (or off the market). It is especially true for Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.
median value vs. average sales price
92008: 649k
92009: 755k vs 848k
92010: 573k
92011: 761k vs 1042k
92024: 796k vs 927k
92130: 965k vs 1164k
91913: 413k vs 437k
91915: 435k vs 465k
92126: 389k vs 412k
92056; 358k vs 407k
