There are so many factors in play, most predictions are guesses. I’ll dance with the one that brung me. Roubini and Schiff convinced me to wait out a home purchase, I owe them a few hundred grand as of now for their advice. What I won’t bite on is all the doomsdayers without the reality check gene. study the crap out of your micro market and avoid national numbers and anectodotal stories. target 2001 prices and that’s about it, they were fundamentally sound then, houses will not be free they will not fall another 50%, they will total 50% from peak but ignore the noise, get realistic and be prepared to pay actual money for a house, they won’t cost ten dollars, they will get close to rent nuetral but not much better. This is part of a cycle, it’s not the end of the world, prepare to take advantage of the cycle.
I concur with peter a little , 1 to 2 more years (at least one, 2009 is a throw away year) but don’t discount the psychological impact of a charismatic president, politics aside, just figure out how to prepare for it. Both clinton and reagan were charismatic leaders, obama is as well, weather you like him or not. Both clinton and reagan had a couple bumpy years to start after inheriting a bad economy and both had it turn around on their watch, same will happen here, 2 years and the ship turns around, prepare for it, hedge your bets.
Or you can get a foil hat, think milk will cost $100 a gallon and houses will cost $100, nobody will have a job, blah blah blah. Don’t drink bubble koolaid and dont drink doomsday koolaid, find the middle drink diet coke, it kills you slow and still tastes good.
