[quote=svelte][quote=Hobie][quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]
Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.[/quote]
Since Aug 1929, we have had a recession in 186 out of the 1131 months. That 16.5% of the time.
You could argue that since he picked a twelve month period he raised his odds way above 16.5%, but I would argue back that those 186 months were in large clumps and not independent of each other as a coin toss would be.
Or another way to look at it based on the link above.
Of the 71 years since 1929, the US has had a recession in 30 of those years— which is about 43% of those years.
Closer to 50% but not exactly there yet. he bet on the riskier option.
