Sorry – I goofed up somehow trying to edit my post.
Partial duplicate below.
[quote=sdrealtor]I’ll add one more log to the things are different around here now fire. 20 years ago and probably even 10 years, my friend moving here from NYC could have never lived here. He’s one of the millions of self-employed folks whose entire business focus, business model and ability to work from home have been enabled by technology. He was previously tied to the NY area but now he can live anywhere with high speed Internet, smartphones, video conferencing, acceptibility of teleconferencing, outsourcing etc. I run into many folks that could live anywhere and have chosen here. That wasnt part of the market here 20 yrs ago like it is today.[/quote]
sdr – I see a disconnect between this comment and your comment on the substitution effect not being very strong.
If people can go anywhere, then the substitution effect is very strong due to the fact that this market is influenced by the pricing of similar neighborhoods all over the country.
Also, if people moving to that area are so well off that they don’t have to work or if they are working remotely, then the local job/industry picture has less effect as well.
You’ll need better justification than this to convince me.
I suspect “Recession II: The Sequel” will hit this area harder than “Recession 1: The Pop”.[/quote]
Bottom line is – all the Governmnent Cheeze protected the high end of the market while appearing to be for the benefit of the middle class and first time home buyers.
In other words, all the loan mods, foreclosure prevention plans, and purchase credits helped the banks keep their heads above water, keep credit flowing, and kept well-off people from hitting the wall as hard as those who were on the edge.
It also kept those who were on the edge from falling off the edge, but they are still on the edge. And, the tax credits added new buyers to those on the edge as such: Buy a home using tax credits. Tax credit disappears. Home prices drop. New buyer is underwater.
Can’t disagree that the “sdr” areas have held up remarkably well, but I just don’t see the next recession won’t be so forgiving.
