As for condos, I don’t follow them at all so I have no idea what they are doing and frankly I don’t care.
As for those two comps I know them much better than you think since I’m a neighbor. The one that just sold could have easily gotten over $1.1 if they would have listed it at that price in the beginning rather than $1,250,000 or whatever they listed it for. The one on Serbal is far nicer IMO both inside and out so maybe they could have also gotten over $1.1mm but they didn’t because buyer sentiment was so bad last summer.
Also the cul de sac location yeilding a premium is very misleading as the one on Camino Serbal is directly across the street from the Cul De Sac so their kids can and do play on that Cul De Sac, and any noise or traffic concerns are also present on Sitio Mirto and Sitio Olmo since those are tiny Cul De Sacs that only go 3 houses deep so they are literally 30 yards from Camino Serbal.
The peak for LCV was summer 2004 and prices have been stagnant to down 10% since then with a huge drop off in demand peaking last summer. LC Oaks had a lot to do with that. That excess supply where the builders are actually mandated to sell or reduce prices has largely vanished and I’m seeing the market firming.
One reason you will see prices here higher in the coming years is all the new commercial development being done near Bressi in the Carlsbad/Vista business corridor. There’s a huge supply of new buildngs going up and they will lower their prices until they fill them up. The folks with families will want to be in a good school district with an easy commute. I know several large businesses buildng their own buildings who will vacating SD and Sorrento Valley for Carlsbad because of price and also the proximity to Carlsbad airport where they have their private jets. Will CEO’s move their entire companies because they want a 5 minute commute to their jets? Yes, they will.
