Russ,
For the record, my prediction for 2007 (made in late 2006 and reiterated dozens of times throughout 2007 on this blog) was a drop in prices between 5 to 10% in the areas I follow with the vast majority of that decline occuring between September and December. I think my record of forecasting stands strong as I was spot on again.
In the last 2 or 3 weeks, recent sales have shown some decent sized drops in North County. Defintely larger drops than we have been seeing. When I checked several of the nice communities in my area, I find virtually nothing in escrow in any of them. I think this shows the price declines we just saw in a handful of sales are not an aberation. Last year I did not believe prices would fall in the Spring and would suffer only late in the year. Thats what happened. Based upon what I see today, I believe prices will decline steadily throughout the year in my area. I’m looking for another 5 to 10% hit this year with a bias toward the the higher end of the range.
