Regarding similar YOY inventory, I would take a look at the percentage of distressed sales out of total listings. Have you noted the distinct shift in the character of the listings since last year?
The peak was specifically noted by posters on this forum and it didn’t seem too complicated at the time. I don’t think the bottom will be that hard either. Listen to Bugs about the two sides of supply and demand. Consider the further impact of tightening credit, coupled with ever mounting foreclosures. Do you really not have enough data to make an informed decision? There are no signs of price stability. The only thing left to do is discuss how fast, how much, and how long.
If we are near the bottom, what does that mean? Are we looking forward to 10%+ YOY appreciation again? Ask yourself how that is even possible. Loans have to be repaid. Prices now are divorced from this concept.
I for one, hope for at least a 50% reduction in prices but not to make a fortune flipping the market. I am looking to eventully reduce my overall cost of living by owning. ~50% is how far prices have to drop from a basic affordability standpoint. Most of the “Rah Rah Rah” on this board is cheering for the return of sanity instead of the previous speculative mania.
