[quote=paramount]It goes without saying that the housing market is heavily manipulated, and I tend to agree with shoveler – I think an event horizon is definitely approaching.
Some type of Lehman~ish shock event.
[/quote]
I feel the same thing, but “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Because of this, I have found, that very smart people are often quite early with their predictions. They see the inevitable and logical conclusion coming sooner than anyone else, but the market takes its time getting there.
Plus, the timing of such event horizons are very difficult to predict, especially with so much energy focused on preventing it.
Look at Europe. The doomsday was supposed to happen two or three years ago. It is still a mess, but the event horizon has been pushed off and pushed off and pushed off. That could still be pushed off for many more. The US, as debt-ridden as it is, is not even as far along as Europe was three years ago. Japan – been going along for 25 years now in their own economic funk. 25 years. Not even worth planning.
Some say the future holds massive inflation like Zimbabwe. Some say deflation like Japan. Well, if it isn’t clear which it is, can an event horizon really be that close ?
As for me, I’m pretty much in a position where I have to buy a move-up house this year. As such, my predictions will always be to the wish-ful thinking bearish side, even though the inventory situation indicates otherwise 🙂
I’m not religious but I pray for inventory every day.
