Once more let’s step back and look at the dynamics of secular cycles people.
Secular cycles don’t go headlong in one direction. Secular cycles are composed of smaller cyclical runs that fluctuate. In a secular down cycle you get cycles inside of them that have lower highs and lower lows. In a secular up cycle you get cycles inside of them that have higher highs and higher lows.
The statistics speak for themselves. Obviously there are certain areas where pricing has reached a point that “pent up demand” the term all the bears hate, has effectively scoooped the homes up. Like it or not, those of you who are forecasting another 30% drop in areas like Mira Mesa or Clairemont may be waiting a heck of alot longer then you want to wait… or forever.
I am not saying anything about a bottom being reached or anything like that. There are plenty of foreclosures in the pipeline, there is employment and interest rate issues to think about and there is plenty of more bad news from banks on the way.
My intention is always to try to “keep it real” as Dave Chapelle would say. Numbers do not lie. Consider this a present snap shot. Basically if you are searching, or thinking about searching for a home in areas where the active pending ratios are “healthy” from a sellers standpoint… well just realize that.
As for short sales and such… these statistics are actually NOT representative. There are MANY actives that actually HAVE short sale offers into the bank. The reality is, any listing agent worth thier salt will NOT enter a property into pending status until the offer is already accepted by the bank. So really the ratios listed above are a best case situation from the bearish point of view.
Again, I am not portending a bottom or being a cheerleader to tell people to buy. Far from it. As a buyer I am bummed by these numbers. However it does help me to ADJUST my expectations with regards to timeframes.
“this is like routing for a stock to go up, nothing you do can affect it but you still cheer anyway.”
92126_guy hang in there… just be patient. It is by no means a sellers market in Mira Mesa. It is just that certain sellers are pricing aggressively and those homes are getting sold.
