No worries Josh, the big difference between my approach and most in here, is that mine is devoid of emotion and opinions. My comments are based on what has happened historically during election years, and declining interest rate environments. If everyone thought a big rally was imminent, it would not happen. I was pummelled in here 2 years ago for calling the big rally and guess what, it happened.
It is always possible that this year will be an exception, but the adage is something like the following. The favorite may not always win, but when betting that is the way to bet. I will bet on the 80% probability vs the 20% every time, and be willing to lose on those 2 out of ten occurences.
Dave, one of the things about trading systems is that they typically have their runs, and then lose their effectiveness to some degree. When to pull the plug on them is always the hardest decision. I am constantly adapting them to current environments, and at a much faster pace than previously. The world changes more quickly than it used to nowadays.
I just try and provide a differing view in here, generally call my shots in advance, and have not been wrong much in terms of market direction. However, I use stops and do have losing trades, so this upcoming long trade may be one of them, but I will do it. I am hoping for one more dip to make a lower low for the year, then I will go in. If the new low does not occur, I will still go long in March sometime most likely.
For those who do not believe in the concept of the PPT, you just saw it live, via a leaked story to a reporter. They do exist, I learned it from someone who is now in his late sixties and used to recieve some of the phone calls when he ran a big institutional fund. There is market manipulation everywhere, sometimes it is easier to see than others. We were about to break down out of a widely watched technical pattern on a Friday, and some of the largest down days in history have happened on Mondays, the insiders did not want that so they leaked that story to trigger some futures buy programs, which are always vulnerable to being triggered during the last hour of trading due to how they operate. This is how the game works, once you know that it is much easier to see it coming.
