Just checked intrade and bodog to see if they agree with that assessment.
McCain’s odds to win (Intrade): 1 to 8.7
McCain’s odds to win (Bodog): 1 to 5.75
It seems that McCain’s odds at Bodog have improved a little bit, but his win is still very unlikely.
They also have a list of bets on specific states (those are closed for betting and I don’t know how recent those odds are). Here are the expectations of the sports-betting community:
Obama has better than 5:1 chance to carry each state carried by Kerry in 2004 (252 votes), Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico), and Virginia (34 votes).
Obama has the lead in Florida (27), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20).
McCain has the lead in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.
McCain has better than 5:1 chance to carry all the remaining red states.
The likely outcome is 364 electoral votes for Obama to 174 for McCain.
