It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.
So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
