If we use history as a guide we can say that this downturn will be much more severe than the early 90s downturn. During that time prices plummetted 20-25% nominal. So using a 1.5 multiplier you get at least 30% nominal decline. That is the MINIMUM. I don’t see how it cannot go down by at least that much, there is nothing right now to prop up the market. But the decline may be delayed by the guerrila government intervention.
