If the value of the dollar falls, your house is worth more dollars. No two ways about it. Your 50% figure doesn’t take into consideration this dollar value reduction because it is a nomial figure. As a wild example, if housing stayed constant and the dollar cut in half, we would see a doubling of prices, right?
Better to estimate the real value drop of housing, then adjust the nominal price depending on inflation or dollar depriciation assumptions. i.e. How much are houses overvalued above what the fundamentals support.
Also consider if the dollar falls, jobs may move back to the US.
Your comment on wages is interesting, but again you quote 5-8% inflation above and 2% inflation below. Which is it? You have lots of thinking / resolving to do to bring your ideas in alighnment with each other. Like I said – you are a good thinker, but you have to connect the dots.
That linear line he drew, which starts in 1986 looks like an extrapolation of data the 4 years proior. It is really the inflation line, but it is nonsensical to say the first 4 years are the norm, but the 20 years after that is a deviation from the norm.
