I would agree with the posts in this thread… to summarize:
You have to get regional. Different areas will bottom faster then others. In this present cycle I think that we may indeed see a pretty substantial variance. Certain regions are not far from breaking even or providing positive cash flow. That would generally help build a strong base for that region.
The other very good point was regarding the foreclosure rate. On a regional basis you need to see a leveling off for a few months in a row. Keep an eye on the overall inventory for that region to make sure it either keeps constant or better yet starts to decline.
As a side note I am a little bit concerned about the bottom for some of the more desireable markets. I think the bottom may be a year or two farther out then I initially hoped but that is a thought at the moment and nothing more. I think a big factor there will be the second wave of resets for A and Alt A paper.
