I will explain to you why people with PHD fail in this game. Actually one of your statement gives you the answer already. This game is an art. It is not a science where 1 + 1 = 2. If it were, then all the math majors would make a killing.
Uh, do you realize that the *most* successful hedge fund in the world is managed by a PhD mathematician? With lots of PhD’s in his employ?