I think that some bears try to approach the subject with a certain amount of circumspection. Bears are not greedy people by nature. I think a lot of bears subscribe to the idea that it’s not cool to get caught hoping for a correction that will cost a large percentage of our neghbors their shirts.
We still have the data and history to consider and we ignore either at our own peril. Any price correction less than 50% won’t even get us close to the long term trendline. If you believe that the past indicates to the future, then a complete correction (and indeed – overcorrection) is more probable than not.
At the same time is also important to remember that the residential markets are not rational. Just because the markets should correct doesn’t mean that they will correct at this time. Who knows, maybe we’ll get a divided cycle whereby we get halfway to the trend this time, followed by a short up-down cycle that gets the rest of the way by the time it’s over.
No matter what, the regional pricing will eventually have to reconcile with wage/population trends, one way or another.
