I think most economists would not describe what happened to Japan's real estate market as a crash, certainly not a sudden crash. Japan instead experienced slow torture: real estate values declining steadily for over ten years. I’ve given this probably too much thought over the last five years. There are parallels. I definitely think of long-term deflation as a possible scenario for American real estate markets. In my mind, this is driven by reduced purchasing power, steadily declining standard of living in America, particularly for the middle class. I have an instinct that it may not be smart for me re-enter the real estate market in USA whenever we are teased with an apparent "bottom" (year 2010-2012?), because home values in America may just follow that with chronic deflation for many additional years. I'm very worried about it. For those with the option, buying property in China appears to be the obvious alternative. Of course, if you buy a home in a major city in China like I have, you just have to stop breathing (toxic air) if you choose to live in the property in China 🙂
With all due respect vrudny, let's get something straight. Buying real estate in china right now as a foreign investor is probably a worse idea than buying something here.
If folks are complaining about home prices being $500k here, don’t even bother considering something in a major city like Shanghai, Suzou, Beijing. The income to housing cost ratio is absurdly disproportinate, worse then what many folks complain about here in the us.
One of the main reasons why real estate has bubbled up in China so much and so fast is until recently, a good portion of purchases have been foreign investors. Average people there can't even think about affording things unless they take out ridiculous mortgages. There lies the problem. Unlike the U.S. where policies prevent wild/spontaneous gov decisions, Chinese government can make policy changes (and have been) very frequently (often weekly or daily basis). In an effort to "cool" things down, they are just about doing everything to discourage foreign investors. Without foreign investors, do you think they real estate is going to keep proped up? And to some extend a muct larger percentage of regulation can occur at the provincial/local level then the national government. Recall also so far, china does *not* have capital gain taxes of investments. This is changing. The mere mention of a tax spooked the chinese stock markets a few times.
Also, there is really lack of regulation and oversight. Granted they are trying to put this in play right now, but it’s like trying to drive without a map and you’re just trying to “wing-it”. These laxes in regulation and oversight will bite the “investors” when/if the house of cards fall.
Also, like I said before, as a foreign investor, you really have no recourse if your real estate deal goes sour. Litigation is rarely if at all (although it is picking up). Now if you have a chinese spouse that is a citizen there or has relatives there, you *could* invest all in her(their) name. Personally, I don't trust my relatives from the other side of the familyto do this. Because again, if anything happened, you would be out of luck-you have no legal claim if something is in your spouse's legal name.
My wife bought property in china about 2-3 years ago before we got married. It's doubled since purchase. She wanted to sell and buy more rentals, BUT it would require her taking out a mortgage in her sis's name. This is where I drew the line. i insisted on opting out. And generally i would discourage anyone I know from doing an in-relative deals like this…I can’t really explain it, because it has to do with chinese culture…But it goes like this. When everyone is winning everyone is fine..The collective family treats the investmest as a collective "our" investment, even though you/spouse ponied up the entire money. However, if things turn sour, I'm sure it will quickly become "my problem" (and not my wife's and her relatives problem). Again, you probably won't understand. It has to do with the chinese culture in handling money. chinese don't like to admit their wrong, so losses will be "your losses".. How do i know???? Lots of real world examples with relatives and friends. one of which, ended up in a divorce (uncle)….And my wife's side is no different.
