I have seldom checked the Piggington site lately because it seemed too snarky and had the same tired old voices all the time. Also, frankly, because the RE cycle a decade ago was far more volatile and worth discussing, and Piggington was a rare voice of wisdom and sanity at a chaotic time. I’m glad to see some old-timers from long ago chime in here with their thanks to Rich.
I’ve made lots of hits and errors in RE over the decades, but am nicely ahead overall. Piggington didn’t so much help me on timing–where I made many mistakes, but helped explain why they happened.
My guess is that in the short run San Diego RE will do well, due to our low interest rates, low unemployment, and low inventory. Longer term, I fear a long overdue recession could really wallop CA and San Diego tax revenues and slam public services. The Trump economy and a stock market 4 times its level of a decade ago (according to the Dow Jones Averages) has brought a gusher of tax revenues to the highly progressive CA tax structure, and spending has ratcheted up accordingly. When combined with our insanely generous government pensions with their overly optimistic 7% rate of return expectations, the slightest stock market “reversion to the mean” will destroy CA finances and thus basic public services–prompting people to “vote with their feet”, leaving CA and hurting RE prices. All that is in the longer run, however. But remember, I am an economist–seldom right, but never in doubt!
