I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.
Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.
