I do agree that this thread still has some discussion value…as the markets are LIKELY headed lower from here. However, it is guesswork at this point: will the markets stall here, or will they go another 10% or 20% lower? Who knows!
My prediction history?
Like Powayseller I also started on this forum by warning too early of the coming bear market, posting my “SELL SELL SELL” advice as early as late 2006. I based a lot of that advice on Roubini’s predictions, which were in ERROR by at least one year regards the onset of the recession and market correction.
However, I do get credit for a remarkably well-timed post when in Oct 2007, I made my second determination (this time correctly) that we had reached the top on the markets, and I shared I was then DOUBLING DOWN my shorts and put option positions.
I also get even more credit because I sold about 5%above the bottom, in March, and posted then confirming those sales.
Then I also posted on this forum almost exactly at the second top (mid May ’08) that I saw a top to the Fool’s Rally and was again loading up on put options and shorts because the second leg of the bear market was about to resume. The timing of that post was near perfect as I missed the top (S&P 500) by only 20 pts.
Where is the market going from here?
I’m GUESSING we are headed south another 10% from here on the NASDAQ and S&P500, but I make that prediction with MUCH less confidence than when I predicted back in Oct ’07 that markets were headed south.
Oh, one more thing: OIL. For those you remember my mistake to short oil index (at $85/bbl), The status update: those same oil positions of mine are now only a few % points away from break-even. Oil price as you know is currently in free-fall, but I admit we got a long way to go before I start making any real money on those short oil index positions.
And I’ll exercise my bragging rights with regard to inflation as well.
If you search you’ll find my posts are over six months (maybe nine months) ago warning of the beggining of dramatically increasing inflation that would affect the mortgage rates. At that time lots of people on here laughed at that post of mine and replied we were entering a DEFLATIONARY period (lottsa laughs). Status update: recent inflation figures are higher than seen in 27 years.
