I am not trying to prop up the market. Just trying to pose another view of the data.
Merwin is a 2368 sf home in the Canterbury subdivision. It is currently priced at 679-719k.
Here is all of the MLS activity for SOLDS in Canterbury for the past few years:
2349 Jeffers 2368 sf 731k 308/sf 7/9/07
5089 Lynch 2398 sf 690k 289/sf 9/13/07
2286 Hillyer 3038 sf 795k 261/sf 5/31/07
2383 Merwin 2810 sf 755k 268/sf 5/22/06
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 835k 318/sf 9/29/06
5103 Frost 2620 sf 812k 312/sf 9/12/05
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 860k 306/sf 3/17/05
5110 Lynch 2810 sf 845k 300/sf 6/27/05
5077 Lynch 3038 sf 801k 263/sf 2/28/05
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 830k 316/sf 7/6/04
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 834k 296/sf 4/5/04
2364 Merwin 2400 sf 653k 272/sf 1/28/04
2375 Merwin 2400 sf 650k 270/sf 11/14/03
2360 Merwin 2620 sf 630k 240/sf 9/25/03
5095 Frost 2368 sf 620k 261/sf 12/12/03
5072 Ciardi 2222 sf 609k 274/sf 8/14/03
Okay so just a few points…
I would not characterize this area in the same league as Carmel Valley, La Costa Valley, 4S… etc… I am not saying anything is wrong with this area. I am saying that at least for buyers I have active searches for who have given me strict criteria, this neighborhood is not one of them.
Another thing, in all of 2005, 2006 and most all of 2004, not a single small model (the 2398 sf) was sold. I am not debunking your data waiting for bottom, I am just trying to present it in a more comprehensive manner. So yes by pure square footage, you are correct but then again, there is not a single data point that shows a 2398 or 2400 sf home in all of Canterbury that sold in the past 3 years.
In fact the VERY HIGHEST PRICE that the small model in Canterbury sold for was the two MOST RECENT SALES of 2007!
Look as I said, it is very easy to pick data out and give a side of the argument that can indeed be very convincing. However if you really start looking into it, things can be not so convincing. What the heck were the buyers of the Jeffers Street home thinking when they paid 731k?
You see what I mean? This is the frustrating thing about the ride down the depreciation road. It just is not as black and white as it may seem.
Now Canterbury has had a fair share of expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns as well…
Is Carlsbad beginning to crumble as you claim? Maybe it is and maybe it is not. Personally I WOULD AGREE that things do look shaky. Yes by virtue of a simple price per square foot there is no argument. Again, it is going down.
However would you not agree that the data maybe is not as rock solid as it may appear at first glance? That the admission that not one single floorplan of this type has even sold in the past 3 years may indeed be a factor that shouldn’t be ignored?
Again… don’t confuse this post with me being bullish or anything like that. Really, I am far from it… Take it as maybe a devils advocate or something of that nature.
