Here’s something I havent written about in about a decade. The accuracy of data that gets reported as absolutely unadulterated garbage! There is a story and details in almost every sale not accurately reflected in what gets reported. here are some examples
Today’s golf partner didnt leave 200K on the table he left a ton more. He told me where he lived and I looked up the sale. If I knew him personally we’d be in lawyers office tomorrow. His neighbor under the guise of no commissions selling direct to him caused him to sell a couple months sooner and for far under market. He should have gotten close to 300K more when he sold it but he shouldnt have sold it in feb. His neighbor talked him into it. He was in the middle of prepping it and his neighbor got him to stop. Had he kept going he would have sold a month or two later for about $500K more on the open market. The data will reflect him getting taken not an open market sale.
For the last month gzz and I have been going back and forth on my NCC monitor. He kept saying the market is up 20% and I was saying at least 30% and likely more. Earlier today he got onboard and posted a sale up 46% in 14 months.
Clients passed on a house in 4S in february. It had multiple offers on it. Seller took 1.03M offer because it was all cash so they didnt have deal with appraisal issue and buyer was gonna let them stay one year for free. They had offers around 1.1M they didnt take. None of those things are reflected in the price of 1.03M. They got a year to stay in the house for free as part of the lower price. A week after that one sold, a similar one sold for $1.185M. The homes closed within a week of each other. Which price is right?
Here are two sales 8 months apart. I walk past these houses every day. They are basically the same house. I know both well and have been in both many times. The first has a 2 and separate 1 car garage. The second has the 1 car garage as a bonus room/office. Owner of first could easily convert if they wanted. The first one has sunny west facing 10K sq ft lot. Second one has 8000 cold and dark north facing lot. The first one is a much better and I would buy it everyday of the week over the second.
Your case shiller says the market is up less than 20% year over year. This sale is more than 50% higher for an inferior home only 8 months later. Case Shiller is the best we have but in my opinion its garbage. Here it understates what is going on. Other places it overstates what is going. there is no consitency to how homes are sold or how data is reported
