Good points. While it is interesting to forecast, we won’t know if we’re right until afterward.
I also don’t know what’s going to happen. I post somethings as a starting point for a discussion. Often I end my posts with “Does someone disagree” or “Any weakness in this argument?”
I am also trying to learn. Please don’t think I have all the answers. I don’t.
I’m in the contrarian and this-must-make-sense-or-I-won’t-do-it camp, along with economists Dean Baker, Robert Shiller, John Talbott, and investors Bill Fleckenstein, Yamamoto. Let’s remember too that not a single economist predicted the 2000-2001 recession in September 2000, when the stock market had already taken a pre-recession hit and all the signs were there. My contrarian and does-this-make-sense view has served me well. It kept me out of tech stocks in 99 and got me out of the housing market in late 05.
I welcome corrections in to my views, and appreciate when someone points out weaknesses and errors in my analysis. I love a good debate, and thank sdr and sduuude for disagreeing with me and being so nice about it at the same time 🙂
