I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.
One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.
Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.
He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).
The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..
I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..
