Edited for accuracy. I originally said “wasn’t right in principle” when I meant “was.” Freudian slip?
The original post from November 2006 is interesting with the statement:
There’s also a video clip of shiller up at bloomberg. He mentions that the traded index futures are “predicting” a 5% or so decline YOY for next august.
The prediction WAS right in principle, if somewhat conservative (~5% predicted YOY decline for August and we are at a 7.8% decline as of the July data).
Where can one see the traded index futures? I would imagine they are pretty confused at this point with the whole credit crunch and the threat of government intervention.
