If it’s not too late to join the discussion: Ask him to read Rich’s Evidence of a California Housing Bubble and Risks of a Serious Home Price Decline. Both article on main piggington page. Those articles convince me to sell my house, that I had just built and lived in for a few months.
Why buy now? How can we be sure prices will drop only 10%? Could they drop 25%, 50%? Why not wait until prices start to turn up, so we know for sure the bottom has passed? Look for the leading indicators by working with a realtor. Media lags the market by one year. When DOM and inventory reduce, then the supply/demand imbalance is shifting and prices will go up. The answer is we do not know how far prices will drop, so what would be the reason to buy now, to catch a falling knife? Buying now is like gambling, because you are making a wild guess that prices will drop only 10%. What is his proof? I am interested in his logic. Perhaps he or you can post it.
