Correlation doesn’t prove causation. Unlike your graph, the lead study actually looked at crime in different states and countries to establish a stronger causal relationship.
(1993 was also about 20 years after leaded fuel started to be phased out.) Things like Three Strikes, at least where there is no possibility of parole, are inhumane in my book, since they don’t take the possibility of rehabilitation into account.
A person is far different at age 45 than at age 20 or 25, and the law should allow for that.