Carlsbadworker, I never thought of that but you have a point about the self fulfilling prophecy. However, it could be a combination of your theory and partially a gut feeling among the old schoolers that left because they got what they wanted and that they also now feel something is afoot. I’ve gotten private messages from some of them so they still read, the just avoid entering the fray.
Brian, back in the day we heard from so many people that said R/E will never go down nominally because history told us so, be we saw we had strayed from history for a variety of reasons, mostly free money.
I’m not convinced a great recession or depression will happen again in my lifetime but I do see we are overdue for at least a mild recession. trouble is that may be a few years away and in the meantime SD seems to be slipping a little based on Rich’s most recent data. So maybe we are entering a few years of flat at least for RE prices, which We will be technically down when inflation is factored. But another poster said it best, buy your primary when it makes sense for you.
Still, I’m advising my brood to rent for a year, but that’s mostly because when you choose a new town to live in, you really should especially since we might have just hot the peak in a way. To the poster that mentioned Harmony Grove, that’s where I think Scenario #1 should buy. Rent, not so much. Here’s why, only rental on zillow is 3250 for 1600 sq ft, or 200 a square to rent. But I see a 2000 sq ft for 600 to buy. so its 300 a sq to buy, that’s a buy in my book for 200k family income or a 180 with a 20% down. They are 23 and going to pull 170-180 combined, but have lots of earning increase potential. In a year or two maybe they will be ready for it. But for now, after spending 5-6 years in school, knocking out post grad while accustomed to living cheap. A 2500 a month rental near MM will satisfy them, be in the middle of their workplaces and give them time to save and get used to managing real money. It’s hard to go from making 10 or 20k part time to 8 times that. Becoming a grown up takes some getting used to. They just aren’t there yet, but it will happen.
