Capeman
You forgot #6 which is you know you will live a long life and not get hit by a beer truck while crossing the street. This too is a realistic possibility.
Someone made a great comment on a thread recetnly adn it might have been this one. It went something like this. If I have a job and a good financial situation now, why should I wait for all the recently jobless and distressed to recover when there will be more competition.
Life is short and if you want to try to eliminate all risk in your life, no one can stop you. I choose to live my life while recognizing the risks and preparing for them. Others choose the same. No one is advocating going out and buying the 1st piece of over priced crap you see. With that said, their are and will continue to be wonderful opportunities that can be exploited. There is no bottom, only the bottom you create for yourself.