Bugs I agree with your post. Based on my own thoughts, I am really leaning towards the back end of the depreciate cycle for substantial drops towards more desireable homes in more desireable areas. Of course a desireable home is in the eyes of the beholder.
The more I look at this cycle, the more I think it will indeed differ from the previous depreciation cycle. I see a much more wider variation in the timing of the bottom for various regions. Indeed I can envision the lower end areas dropping more… perhaps to the levels you mentioned and then they will stay flat or perhaps even move up while the higher end areas may indeed still be falling.
I also think there very well could be an underestimation about the stubborness of sellers with heavy equity stakes of yielding to price pressures and simply deciding to ride it out.
Of course we need to see what happens with employment and the 10 year.
