Read the “Explanatory Notes” at bottom of page 1.
It is +/- 12.00% not 0.12%
Also,a SALE is defined as a deposit taken or a sales agreement signed. (NOT a closed escrow)
Many of them won’t be able to close on a jumbo loan.
The July revised numbers should be pathetic, IF they ever release them.
TABLE 1, On page 2, the top half is “seasonally adjusted” The sales YOY in the “west” are down 19.6%
The bottom half is NOT seasonally adjusted and YTD sales are down 30%.
I do not have a clear understanding on HOW they factor “seasonally adjusted” Do you know ??
Am I correct in seeing NOT seasonally adjusted as the REAL numbers, and the “adjusted” as manipulated ??
The only talk on Friday was SALES UP 22%
Being down 9% would still be accurate with their margin of error. GREAT QUALITY REPORT, eh ??
I’ve marked September 27th on my calendar. I can’t wait to see the margin of error on the August report.
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i.e. 2.4% +/- 12% = -9.6% to 14.4% or
2.4% * (1+/-0.12) = 2.1% to 2.9%
If it is the first, they should never publish that garbage. My guess is that it is the second.
