another factor that may keep real estate prices flat for a long time after the ‘bottom’:
when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation
read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this
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let’s see – a ‘bottom’ in 2011/2012 and then a full generation before real estate becomes a ‘respectable’ investment again – that takes us to 2030 or so before the next up-cycle in real estate might begin
