The Boomers and coming, the Boomers are coming….or are they going?

[Bugs]

I’m sure everyone caught the news item the other day that the first Boomer officially signed up for her Social Security benefits, which means she intends to start collecting them in May 2008. At least, that’s what I got out of that news article.

I’ve read a couple books on the subject of the demographics of the different generations and how those demographics – all by themselves – affect the economy.

A few years back when I saw this RE economy overheat I knew there would eventually be a correction, but I didn’t realize the upcycle would last so long or get so high that it would push the correction back past 2008. Now I’m wondering if the confluence of the weakened RE market and the onset of the wave of Boomer retirements that get going in earnest in 2010 might possibly push that recovery back even further.

Sure, I reckon some savers from other areas will be coming to town after they retire, and just in time to score some (relatively speaking) price bargains. But I’m wondering if there are enough Boomers with both the desire and sufficient non-RE related liquidity to affect our regional price structures, and I’m wondering what percentages of Boomers locally are in a position to stay after they retire or otherwise lose their jobs.

On a side note, I’m wondering if a lot of 60-somethings are going to be heeding those commercials urging them to chase their second childhood. Our local lineup is already overloaded with idiots; I’m dreading an onslaught of Boomers paddling out on their softtop longboards to add to the donkey factor.

Anyone here have a perspective on this?

[4plexowner]

another factor that may keep real estate prices flat for a long time after the ‘bottom’:

when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation

read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this

~

let’s see – a ‘bottom’ in 2011/2012 and then a full generation before real estate becomes a ‘respectable’ investment again – that takes us to 2030 or so before the next up-cycle in real estate might begin

[4plexowner]

another factor that may keep real estate prices flat for a long time after the ‘bottom’:

when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation

read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this

~

let’s see – a ‘bottom’ in 2011/2012 and then a full generation before real estate becomes a ‘respectable’ investment again – that takes us to 2030 or so before the next up-cycle in real estate might begin

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation

read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this

That classical literature needs to be updated. Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago, yet the percentage of 401Ks invested in equities is near an all time high today. I wouldn’t consider that being shunned for a generation. That is, unless we are talking about a generation in dog years.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

when a financial mania occurs and then subsides, the asset class that the mania was focussed on is typically shunned for at least a full generation

read any of the classic literature on financial manias and they discuss this

That classical literature needs to be updated. Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago, yet the percentage of 401Ks invested in equities is near an all time high today. I wouldn’t consider that being shunned for a generation. That is, unless we are talking about a generation in dog years.

[4plexowner]

the bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation

I am referring to 9/11 (let it happen or make it happen – take your pick) which kicked off the ‘war on terror’ and its related spending (don’t forget that the markets had already dropped significantly when 9/11 occurred), dropping interest rates to 1% in the US, having Japan flood the world with yen borrowed at almost 0% interest, creating a raft of new financial instruments (derivatives) that nobody really understands, etc

to point to the 2000 bubble as the one example of a mania that doesn’t conform to history would be a little bit premature at this point

I would also mention that, whan priced in gold, the Dow is down about 50% from where it was in 2000 – the sheeple don’t realize this so they think the markets are near all time highs

history books of the future will point to this era as the classic example of a financial mania and its blowoff – hopefully the history books will also be able to write that we finally learned the fiat money lesson and strung all the bankers up from the nearest trees

[4plexowner]

the bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation

I am referring to 9/11 (let it happen or make it happen – take your pick) which kicked off the ‘war on terror’ and its related spending (don’t forget that the markets had already dropped significantly when 9/11 occurred), dropping interest rates to 1% in the US, having Japan flood the world with yen borrowed at almost 0% interest, creating a raft of new financial instruments (derivatives) that nobody really understands, etc

to point to the 2000 bubble as the one example of a mania that doesn’t conform to history would be a little bit premature at this point

I would also mention that, whan priced in gold, the Dow is down about 50% from where it was in 2000 – the sheeple don’t realize this so they think the markets are near all time highs

history books of the future will point to this era as the classic example of a financial mania and its blowoff – hopefully the history books will also be able to write that we finally learned the fiat money lesson and strung all the bankers up from the nearest trees

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

the bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation

“should have started” ? Huh? Are you kidding me ?

Did someone miss the worst bear market in a generation ?

The S&P 500 (broad index) declined by about 48% in the ~36 month bear market from March 2000- March 2003.

This is rivaled in the past HALF-CENTURY by one other similar Bear market. A 48% decline in the S&P 500 from January 1973 to December 1974. That was nearly a 24-month bear market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

the bear market in equities that should have started in 2000 with the crash of the NASDAQ was averted by some very heavy-handed manipulation

“should have started” ? Huh? Are you kidding me ?

Did someone miss the worst bear market in a generation ?

The S&P 500 (broad index) declined by about 48% in the ~36 month bear market from March 2000- March 2003.

This is rivaled in the past HALF-CENTURY by one other similar Bear market. A 48% decline in the S&P 500 from January 1973 to December 1974. That was nearly a 24-month bear market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago

Oops. Correction: 7 years ago.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Consider the largest stock bubble in 80 years peaked a mere 5 years ago

Oops. Correction: 7 years ago.

[4plexowner]

I should have said ‘secular’ bear market in equities which will last for 15 years or so – not 36 months

[4plexowner]

I should have said ‘secular’ bear market in equities which will last for 15 years or so – not 36 months

[lindismith]

Our local lineup is already overloaded with idiots; I’m dreading an onslaught of Boomers paddling out on their softtop longboards to add to the donkey factor.

Anyone here have a perspective on this?

Well at least it’s one less in the line-up if they go under and don’t come up!

Bugs, are you seriously seeing beginning surfers in their 60s????

I’m seeing a lot of women, of all ages. One hit me at Tourmaline about 6 weeks ago. Turns out she was an instructor from Hawaii! I think she was high. And come to think of it, another one I saw recently was a woman in her sixties, snaking groms in the line-up at Pipes. She was more experienced, but still, she didn’t seem to understand basic protocols. She seemed to be operating under a sense of entitlement.

[lindismith]

Our local lineup is already overloaded with idiots; I’m dreading an onslaught of Boomers paddling out on their softtop longboards to add to the donkey factor.

Anyone here have a perspective on this?

Well at least it’s one less in the line-up if they go under and don’t come up!

Bugs, are you seriously seeing beginning surfers in their 60s????

I’m seeing a lot of women, of all ages. One hit me at Tourmaline about 6 weeks ago. Turns out she was an instructor from Hawaii! I think she was high. And come to think of it, another one I saw recently was a woman in her sixties, snaking groms in the line-up at Pipes. She was more experienced, but still, she didn’t seem to understand basic protocols. She seemed to be operating under a sense of entitlement.

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