[quote=AN][quote=Arraya]
Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.
Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand
Lower demand + pent up inventory =
See how easy this is[/quote]
Since you’re talking about integrating common sense, are you assuming the current rate of job contraction is the new normal?[/quote]
No it will stop eventually, but growth will not resume. Also, the rate will continue for years to come. With a significant upturn next quarter. Probably around 2011 it will subside and we will stabilize at around 30-40% real unemployment.
