According to RatherOpinionated on December 2006, this is what it will look like:
“Timing the Bottom
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Submitted by RatherOpinionated on December 6, 2007 – 10:15am.
Rich,
the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.
For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.
I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.
Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.
This is fun….”
