Whether we have used most of the oil in the ground or not is NOT the most immediate issue

I see three significant issues with oil:

1. we have reached peak PRODUCTION – even if there is an unlimited amount of oil in the ground we have been unable to increase production in the last few years even though demand has increased significantly – worldwide production has been in the 84-86 million barrels per day range for the last two years or more (and how many times have the Saudis said they were going to ramp up production for us?)

2. the countries that export oil have growing consumer populations – per capita energy usage in the oil exporting countries is much lower than here BUT INCREASING – as the consumers in these countries use more energy there is less available for export

3. demand for energy is increasing rapidly – there are 3 billion people in Asia who all want to achieve the Western lifestyle – cars, TVs, refrigerators, etc and all of it takes energy to make and to operate – as the consumer population in Asia continues to grow there will be dramatically more demand for oil and energy in general

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Price of gasoline: I think the pump price for gas will remain below $4 until after the Nov 2008 election – don’t want to upset the sheeple with expensive gas