[quote=SK in CV][quote=Harvey]The argument that we shouldn’t improve something that is obviously very broken because any improvements could theoretically cause a recession is a terrible way to approach policy.[/quote]

It can “theoretically cause a recession” only by using “theory” the way evolution deniers say “it’s only a theory”. There is no economic model that shows a recession is a possibility, much less a likelihood.[/quote]

What are you talking about. A recession is a reduction of GDP by definition. Health care spending is included in the measurement of GDP. If GDP is 15 trillion and health care is 3 trillion of that then reducing health care spending by 1 trillion reduces GDP by 1 trillion. Therefore you have a recession by definition. Now that recession might be short lived once the economy reallocates itself but it most certainly will take some time for the economy to reallocate itself. Even if you do some sort of phase in to single payer the insurance companies and others effected are going to immediately respond by laying off as many people as they possibly can before the policies go fully into effect.

I’m not saying you won’t be better off in the end but as a politician you could lose a election cycle or two until things stabilize again. I’m also saying to don’t see how you can materially change health care spending without causing a recession just because of the way the math works.