[quote=ucodegen]
Umm.. so you are now calling to stay in the market? I’m just a little superstitious.. I remember the market seems to have a way of moving contrary to your suggestions-actions. Almost like it was rigged specifically against someone.
[/quote]
No, I’m not making any recommendations whatsoever.
It seems like people are doing using the same rational, logic, reasoning to get out of the market now as other people did a few weeks ago….
But then, at the same time, when those people (me included) did make that decision…and the markets went the other way, there was…
[quote]
It is not wise to go all cash. Don’t time to market. Nobody can do it accurately. A smart thing to do is stay invested
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and
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I disagree. Missing even just a few very good days in the market (which no one can accurately predict when they will be) can cause your returns to be significantly lower than buy-and-hold.
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That’s the confusing part….I wasn’t even thinking about trying to “time” a peak value to get out. I was just thinking, you know I’m getting old. I’ve made a lot of money over the past 8 years from all sorts of things…Maybe it’s time to pay off my house, my rental property loans, and move my kid’s education fund more into cash… well, you know…just in case Trump wins and the world goes to shit. Because if I did that, even if everything else blows up… I still have my houses, still have my savings, and my kid’s education is still funded for the next 4 years… And it seems like it’s the same rational that people think right now, that dow is at 20k, a “gut” feeling and just as arbitrary as at any other point in time. That’s why I left that thread after I made that tongue and cheek comment “you’d be singing a different tune if the markets actually went the other way”.
I admit, looking at the subsequent 20+% gain in the market was hard to look at after a trump win. That sucks.. As I’m sure it will suck for those that do get out at 20k an dow marches forward…if that happens. (and that’s a big if)…
[quote]
Both are market timing. The first one is unsuccessful market timing, the second is successful market timing. — also note the wording of ‘goes the way you guessed’. It could also be determined on what ‘inputs’ contributed to your decision.[/quote]
Ok, maybe we’re onto something here.
Examples might be: i”I’m going to try get out right before a crash, and then get back in and try to make a killing.”
Or: “I’m going to get out to mitigate risk, just in case…”
Or something else….
Ok, maybe…Well, if that’s the case, then I’m not sure it’s necessary bad to stay in invested in the market of even to buy a primary house right now. It depends on the age of the person, where their net worth is at this current moment in time, and what there eventual financial goals are, and how far away are they from it.
In as much as a primary house purchase. I’m not sure if it’s really a bad time to buy right now either. If the mortgage is still roughly the same as rent costs, and you can come up with the down payment, and the down payment isn’t ridiculously large, why would it be a bad time to buy?
