IMHO: It’s nowhere near the bottom yet. There’s way too much inventory and a lack of buyers at the present prices considering the new loan rules and rates. Then, we have the looming problem of ARM loans that will reset over the next couple of years and the impending foreclosures that will result from owners who won’t be able to make the new, higher payment. Be happy that you’re renting and not going to take a huge haircut. Give it at least two years (I’m guessing 3 1/2 to 4 years to hit the bottom).
Here’s some statistics:
Tracking San Diego County, California
Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/01/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:220
7/31/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:131
San Diego County
…………..Inventory (Sales)………………….(Sales)
01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)___01/2005: (3,324)
02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)___02/2005: (3,442)
03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)___03/2005: (5,018)
04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)___04/2005: (5,345)
05/2006: 21,175 (4,480)___05/2005: (5,141)
06/2006: 22,588 (4,533)___06/2005: (5,663)
07/2006: 23,385 (3,370)___07/2005: 14,176 (4,765)
08/2006: 23,381 (3,666)___08/2005: 15,240 (5,379)
09/2006: 22,710 (3,207)___09/2005: 16,081 (4,935)
10/2006: 21,692 (3,282)___10/2005: 16,490 (4,155)
11/2006: 19,831 (2,987)___11/2005: 16,072 (3,937)
12/2006: 17,223 (3,613)___12/2005: 14,591 (4,262)
Population 2007: 3.10 million
1/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:191
6/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:144
All-time Record high inventory: 23,385 homes, July 2006.
All-time low inventory: 2,301 homes, March 2004.
Previous Record high inventory: 19,250 homes, July 1995.
North County Times 4/12/06
Population 1995: 2.66 million
Listing per population ratio 7/1995: 1:138
Population adjusted record high inventory: 22,174 homes.
-ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sales figure) includes new and resale homes from DataQuickNews
